CAJ | 학술논문

利用漠河站点1961～2004年逐日平均、最高和最低气温资料计算得到的年均温、年变化和季节变化的持续暖口和冷夜频数,分析了它们的线性趋势、增量、显著性和平稳性.其中年均温升高了约1.61℃,年持续暖口频数增加了约4次,冬季持续暖日频数和夏季持续冷夜频数都呈显著增加趋势.分别对年均温和年持续频数的线性回归关系,以及年均温和季持续频数的线性回归关系进行了显著性检验.在线性回归关系显著的情况下,分别就各频数序列埘年均温的影响逐一进行显著性检验,从而揭示了年均温与符频数序列的变化关系.研究结果表明:从按年,变化的角度米分析,年均温的升高是由年持续暖日频数的增加和年持续冷夜频数的减少共同显著影响的;从按季变化的角度来分析,年均温的升高主要由春、夏季持续暖日频数的增加和春、秋季持续冷夜频数的减少共同显著影响的.
이용막하참점1961～2004년축일평균、최고화최저기온자료계산득도적년균온、년변화화계절변화적지속난구화랭야빈수,분석료타문적선성추세、증량、현저성화평은성.기중년균온승고료약1.61℃,년지속난구빈수증가료약4차,동계지속난일빈수화하계지속랭야빈수도정현저증가추세.분별대년균온화년지속빈수적선성회귀관계,이급년균온화계지속빈수적선성회귀관계진행료현저성검험.재선성회귀관계현저적정황하,분별취각빈수서렬시년균온적영향축일진행현저성검험,종이게시료년균온여부빈수서렬적변화관계.연구결과표명:종안년,변화적각도미분석,년균온적승고시유년지속난일빈수적증가화년지속랭야빈수적감소공동현저영향적;종안계변화적각도래분석,년균온적승고주요유춘、하계지속난일빈수적증가화춘、추계지속랭야빈수적감소공동현저영향적.
Annual mean temperature,frequency of annual durative warm days and cold nights,and frequency of seasonal durative warm days and cold nights were calculated based on the daily mean,maximum and minimum tern-perature at Mohe during 1961-2004.Linear trends,increments,significance tests and stationarity test were ana-lyzed.Annual mean temperature increased by 1.61℃and the frequency of annual durative warm days rose by four times.There were significant increasing trends in both frequency of winter durative warFfl days and summer durative cold nights.Significance tests were made on linear regression relationship between annual mean temperature and fre-quency of annual durative series,and frequency of seasonal durative series.As the linear regression relationship was statistically significant,significance tests were made on every frequency series to the annual mean temperature indi-vidually,to indicate the correlation among them.The results were as follows:From annual aspect.the increase in the annual mean temperature was significantly influenced by the increase of annual durative warrfl day frequency and the decrease of annual durative cold night frequency;from seasonal aspect,the increase in annual mean temperature was significantly influenced by the increase of spring and summer durative warm day frequency,together with the decrease of spring and autumn durative cold night frequency.