商业经济
商業經濟
상업경제
BUSINESS ECONOMY
2012年
2期
37-40
,共4页
西南旱灾%上海世博会%贵州旅游%影响评价
西南旱災%上海世博會%貴州旅遊%影響評價
서남한재%상해세박회%귀주여유%영향평개
drought in Southwest China%Expo 2010 Shanghai China%tourism in Guizhou Province%impact assessment
通过分层聚类方法，得出吉林、黑龙江等地区和贵州的旅游业受上海世博会的影响为同一类别，把世博会对吉林和黑龙江旅游业拉动率的平均值作为对贵州旅游业的拉动率，剔除了世博会对贵州旅游业的影响；然后应用本底趋势线模型计算出贵州旅游业因旱灾导致的损失值和损失率；最后，运用近年来贵州旅游业的半年度数据证实了旱灾确实对旅游业产生的影响。
通過分層聚類方法，得齣吉林、黑龍江等地區和貴州的旅遊業受上海世博會的影響為同一類彆，把世博會對吉林和黑龍江旅遊業拉動率的平均值作為對貴州旅遊業的拉動率，剔除瞭世博會對貴州旅遊業的影響；然後應用本底趨勢線模型計算齣貴州旅遊業因旱災導緻的損失值和損失率；最後，運用近年來貴州旅遊業的半年度數據證實瞭旱災確實對旅遊業產生的影響。
통과분층취류방법，득출길림、흑룡강등지구화귀주적여유업수상해세박회적영향위동일유별，파세박회대길림화흑룡강여유업랍동솔적평균치작위대귀주여유업적랍동솔，척제료세박회대귀주여유업적영향；연후응용본저추세선모형계산출귀주여유업인한재도치적손실치화손실솔；최후，운용근년래귀주여유업적반년도수거증실료한재학실대여유업산생적영향。
By means of hierarchical clustering, this paper concludes that the tourism of Jilin and Heilongjiang as well as Guizhou Province belongs to the same category affected by Expo 2010 Shanghai China. Taking the average value of pulling rate from Expo 2010 for Jilin and Heilougjiaug tourism as that for Guizhou tourism and deleting the influence of Expe 2010 on Guizhou, we calculate the loss value and loss rate from its drought through the model of background trend line, and confirm the influence of drought on its tourism aecerding to its half-year data in recent years.
