CAJ | 학술논문

一般认为，持久收入是决定居民消费需求的基本因素。采用湖北省1978-2009年的农村居民持久收入与消费支出的年度统计数据，对湖北省农村居民的实际持久收入与消费进行协整分析。结果发现，湖北省农村居民的长期和短期消费弹性分别是0．857和0．728，二者之间存在着长期均衡和短期波动调整关系，持久收入是影响消费需求的决定性因素。在此基础上，提出相应政策建议，即大力提高农村居民的持久收入，从根本上激活农村消费市场和提高农村居民的消费水平。
일반인위，지구수입시결정거민소비수구적기본인소。채용호북성1978-2009년적농촌거민지구수입여소비지출적년도통계수거，대호북성농촌거민적실제지구수입여소비진행협정분석。결과발현，호북성농촌거민적장기화단기소비탄성분별시0．857화0．728，이자지간존재착장기균형화단기파동조정관계，지구수입시영향소비수구적결정성인소。재차기출상，제출상응정책건의，즉대력제고농촌거민적지구수입，종근본상격활농촌소비시장화제고농촌거민적소비수평。
It is generally believed that permanent income is the basic factor to determine residents＇ consumption demand. Based on the annual statistical data of permanent income and consumption expenditure of rural residents in Hubei province from1978 to 2009, this paper analyzes the cointegration of actual permanent income and consumption of rural residents in Hubei province. The result shows that the longterm and short-term consumption elasticity of rural residents in Hubei province is 0. 8571 and 0. 727 8 respectively,which indicates that relationship between long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations exists and permanent income is the decisive factor in affecting consumption demand. Consequently, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestion that it is quite necessary to greatly enhance the permanent income of rural residents so as to activate rural consumer market and fundamentally increase the consumption of rural residents.