CAJ | 학술논문

短临地震预报尤其是临震预报，是当今国内外公认的世界性科学难点。文章综述了中国科学家从多学科交叉和内外因耦合的科学途径，已在大地震临震信号方面获得了次声波异常、地应力突跳、虎皮鹦鹉跳跃异常、地电和地磁异常、卫星红外异常、重力高频脉冲等临震预测的手段。笔者通过典型分析和普查对比各种地球物理因子和各种天文因子可能影响的整体研究，找到了大地震临震的主要触发因子——以月亮为主的非经典引潮力共振的异常叠加。在此基础上，采取内外因耦合的途径和方法，在6 a多来联合进行的临震预测内部试验表明，地震三要素均基本正确的成功率已达40%。最后，还对临震预报问题提出了一些看法。
단림지진예보우기시림진예보，시당금국내외공인적세계성과학난점。문장종술료중국과학가종다학과교차화내외인우합적과학도경，이재대지진림진신호방면획득료차성파이상、지응력돌도、호피앵무도약이상、지전화지자이상、위성홍외이상、중력고빈맥충등림진예측적수단。필자통과전형분석화보사대비각충지구물리인자화각충천문인자가능영향적정체연구，조도료대지진림진적주요촉발인자——이월량위주적비경전인조력공진적이상첩가。재차기출상，채취내외인우합적도경화방법，재6 a다래연합진행적림진예측내부시험표명，지진삼요소균기본정학적성공솔이체40%。최후，환대림진예보문제제출료일사간법。
Short-term and impending earthquake predictions are still well known hard challenges in the world. This paper summarizes the study progress on the impending earthquake prediction by Chinese scientists from the method of multi-subject intersection and the internal and external factors coupling. Depending on very hard work during recent years, they get some important signals of predicting impending earthquakes, including the anomalies of infrasonic sound wave, crustal stress, behavior of budgerigars, general geoelectric, geomagnetic, satellite heat infrared and high frequency gravity pulsation. The authors have discovered an important triggering factor of a violent earthquakes—the abnormal superimposition of tide-generating force resonance from typical analysis and compared all astronomical and geophysical factors. Based on these, the examinational immediate prediction has been carried out by combining the tide-generating force resonance with the impending signals for last six years.The results show that the successful ratio of three basic elements of earthquake prediction accounts for 40% . At last, the authors give some views on the impending violent earthquake problem.