CAJ | 학술논문

尽管人们对大熊猫的种群动态了解很少,但是我们可以从对相似物种的研究和经历中了解一些基本原理.在不减少对后续的有关大熊猫种群特征、遗传学和行为研究的前提下,根据对北美食肉动物种群生物学的理解,我提出了下面一般性的结论.首先,弹性分析确认,大熊猫演变出了确保雌性个体高存活率的生活史.比较而言,繁殖率并不重要.成年雌性个体的存活率增加,比相应的繁殖输出要导致5倍的保护效益.第二,在可能表现大熊猫种群特征的假设前提下,雄性(甚至成年个体)的存活率相对而言也是不重要的.第三,尽管都认为大熊猫繁殖很缓慢,但是从数学上来说,如果生境(以及与其相关的存活率)允许,大熊猫的种群能够比较快地增长.最后,北美西部对濒危物种再引入的经验提醒我们,保留大片尚未破碎化的生境非常重要.狼在20世纪中叶就在美国西部灭绝了,但是目前由于有广阔的生存区域和丰富的食物,种群恢复很快.对比而言,最近从原野中消失的黑足鼬,在种群重建过程中遇到了很大的困难,尽管人们在科学上做出了巨大的努力.看来黑足鼬可能只是没有足够的野外栖息地(猎物)以维持生存.如果没有足够的栖息地,再好的科学也不能拯救大熊猫[动物学报50(4):662-668,2004].
진관인문대대웅묘적충군동태료해흔소,단시아문가이종대상사물충적연구화경력중료해일사기본원리.재불감소대후속적유관대웅묘충군특정、유전학화행위연구적전제하,근거대북미식육동물충군생물학적리해,아제출료하면일반성적결론.수선,탄성분석학인,대웅묘연변출료학보자성개체고존활솔적생활사.비교이언,번식솔병불중요.성년자성개체적존활솔증가,비상응적번식수출요도치5배적보호효익.제이,재가능표현대웅묘충군특정적가설전제하,웅성(심지성년개체)적존활솔상대이언야시불중요적.제삼,진관도인위대웅묘번식흔완만,단시종수학상래설,여과생경(이급여기상관적존활솔)윤허,대웅묘적충군능구비교쾌지증장.최후,북미서부대빈위물충재인입적경험제성아문,보류대편상미파쇄화적생경비상중요.랑재20세기중협취재미국서부멸절료,단시목전유우유엄활적생존구역화봉부적식물,충군회복흔쾌.대비이언,최근종원야중소실적흑족유,재충군중건과정중우도료흔대적곤난,진관인문재과학상주출료거대적노력.간래흑족유가능지시몰유족구적야외서식지(작물)이유지생존.여과몰유족구적서식지,재호적과학야불능증구대웅묘[동물학보50(4):662-668,2004].
Although population dynamics of giant pandas Ailuropoda melanoleuca remain poorly known, basic principles can be safely transferred from studies of, and experience with, similar species. Without minimizing the importance of continued study of demographics, genetics, and behavior of pandas, I offer the following generalizations from our understanding of carnivore population biology in North America. First, elasticity analyses confirm that pandas have evolved life-histories that prioritize high survival of adult females. In comparison, reproductive rates are unimportant. Increases in survival of adult females will yield approximately 5 times the conservation benefit of proportional increases in reproductive output.Second, under circumstances likely to characterize most panda populations, survival rates of males (even adults) are also relatively unimportant. Thirdly, notwithstanding its well-deserved reputation as a slow breeder, giant panda populations are mathematically capable of growing surprisingly quickly, if habitats (and associated survival rates) allow. Finally, reintroductions of endangered species in western North America remind us of the critical role of maintaining large patches of unfragmented habitat. Wolves Canis lupus, extirpated from the western U.S. before the mid-20 th century, have made a rapid and surprisingly painless recovery because wild areas and prey populations remained abundant. In contrast, blackfooted ferrets Mustela nigripes, lost from the wild more recently, have encountered great difficulty in becoming reestablished, despite tremendous scientific efforts. It appears that ferrets may simply no longer have sufficient wild habitat (i.e.,prey) to persist. The best science will not be capable of saving pandas if sufficient habitat is not available [ Acta Zoologica Sinica 50 (4): 662-668, 2004].