CAJ | 학술논문

强对流颅报是天气预报的难点,为了提高预报强对流、特别是预报区域件强对流天气的预报能力,应用河南省1995-2004年的气象观测资料作分析样本,并计算多个大气动力和热力学参数.经过统计分析、诊断分析,选择预报能力强、指示性好的大气动力或热力学参数作为强对流天气的预报因子,采用加权集成建立预报方程.应用计算机技术自动实现从数据采集、物理参数计算、预报因子临界值判别、诊断预报方程运算,到以MICAPS图形方式输出预报结果,建立了河南省区域强对流天气预报系统.该系统为预报员提供了一种科学客观的参考依据,在近两年的业务运行中取得了比较理想的预报效果,提升了河南省强对流天气的预报能力.
강대류로보시천기예보적난점,위료제고예보강대류、특별시예보구역건강대류천기적예보능력,응용하남성1995-2004년적기상관측자료작분석양본,병계산다개대기동력화열역학삼수.경과통계분석、진단분석,선택예보능력강、지시성호적대기동력혹열역학삼수작위강대류천기적예보인자,채용가권집성건립예보방정.응용계산궤기술자동실현종수거채집、물리삼수계산、예보인자림계치판별、진단예보방정운산,도이MICAPS도형방식수출예보결과,건립료하남성구역강대류천기예보계통.해계통위예보원제공료일충과학객관적삼고의거,재근량년적업무운행중취득료비교이상적예보효과,제승료하남성강대류천기적예보능력.
Severe convection is a difficult problem in the weather forecast.For the purpose of increasing the forecasting ability of severe convective weather,especially the local severe convective weather,we have calculated lots of dynamical and thermal parameters by using the analysis model of meteorological observing data from 1995 to 2004 in Henan Province.By statistic and diagnostic analyses we chose better atmospheric dynamical or thermal parameters of forecasting ability and indexes as severe convective forecasting predictors,and then established a forecasting equation by using weighted integrating.We applied computer technology to realize auto-collecting data,calculating physical parameters,distinguishing threshold value of predictor and operating diagnostic forecasting equation to output forecast conclusions by means of MICAPS figure at last.Based on these we have built the forecasting system of local severe convective weather of Henan.This system has offered a scientific and objective reference for the forecasters and gotten quite perfect predicting effect in the operational running in the latest two years,thus lifted the forecasting ability of severe convective weather in Henan.