CAJ | 학술논문

利用生态系统模型BIOME-BGC模拟北京东灵山地区辽东栎(Suercus liaotungensis Koidz)林生态系统净初级生产力(net primary productivity,NPP)对全球气候变化潜在响应.首先,BIOME-BGC模型模拟的土壤含水量和NPP与该地区实际测量结果、其他模型模拟研究进行比较分析,结果显示BIOME-BGC能较好的模拟辽东栎林生态系统净生产力.然后,利用BIOME-BGC模拟辽东栎林生态系统NPP对不同气候变化的响应.结果表明:(1)NPP对温度变化不敏感,而对降水和CO2变化极为敏感;(2)温度、降水和CO2对NPP的影响并没有显示出交互作用.
이용생태계통모형BIOME-BGC모의북경동령산지구료동력(Suercus liaotungensis Koidz)림생태계통정초급생산력(net primary productivity,NPP)대전구기후변화잠재향응.수선,BIOME-BGC모형모의적토양함수량화NPP여해지구실제측량결과、기타모형모의연구진행비교분석,결과현시BIOME-BGC능교호적모의료동력림생태계통정생산력.연후,이용BIOME-BGC모의료동력림생태계통NPP대불동기후변화적향응.결과표명:(1)NPP대온도변화불민감,이대강수화CO2변화겁위민감;(2)온도、강수화CO2대NPP적영향병몰유현시출교호작용.
An ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, was used to explore the sensitivity of net primary productivity (NPP) of an oak (Quercus liaotungensis Koidz) forest ecosystem in Beijing area to global climate changes caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Firstly we tested the model, and validated the modeled outputs using observational data; the outputs of BIOME-BGC model were consistent with observed soil water content and annual NPP. Secondly the potential impacts of climate change on the oak forest ecosystem were predicted with BIOME-BGC model. We found that the simulated NPP was much more sensitive to a 20% precipitation increase or a doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 355 to 710 μmol/mol than to a 2 ℃ temperature increase. Our results also indicated that the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on the response of NPP were not interactive.