暴雨灾害
暴雨災害
폭우재해
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND DISASTERS
2011年
4期
343-348
,共6页
张斌%张立凤%彭军%杨袁慧
張斌%張立鳳%彭軍%楊袁慧
장빈%장립봉%팽군%양원혜
特大暴雨%数值模拟%水汽辐合%湿位温%垂直速度
特大暴雨%數值模擬%水汽輻閤%濕位溫%垂直速度
특대폭우%수치모의%수기복합%습위온%수직속도
heavy rainstorm%numerical simulation%moisture convergence%wet potential temperature%vertical speed
利用WRF模式对2009年6月29日湖北地区的一次特大暴雨过程进行数值模拟。对24 h累积降水和逐时降水的模拟结果表明：无论是强度还是落区,模式对湖北鹤峰地区的累积降水模拟非常接近实际,但其逐时降水的模拟与实况差异较大。为了揭示影响逐时降水模拟效果的因子,对鹤峰地区3个时刻的不同模拟效果进行对比分析,结果表明：强降水的模拟效果与水汽、垂直速度及大气层结的模拟紧密相关;模式对于这些物理量在各个时刻的不同模拟效果导致逐时降水模拟的偏差,对于05时、13时、21时的降水峰值预报分别为漏报、准确模拟和虚假模拟;强降水期间,鹤峰中低层大气维持中性层结,位势不稳定区在其南侧,最终形成强的湿位温水平梯度,有利于辐合上升运动的增强;逐时降水模拟效果不仅反映了降水模拟的精度,还会影响后期大气层结稳定度的模拟,进而影响后期降水模拟效果。
利用WRF模式對2009年6月29日湖北地區的一次特大暴雨過程進行數值模擬。對24 h纍積降水和逐時降水的模擬結果錶明：無論是彊度還是落區,模式對湖北鶴峰地區的纍積降水模擬非常接近實際,但其逐時降水的模擬與實況差異較大。為瞭揭示影響逐時降水模擬效果的因子,對鶴峰地區3箇時刻的不同模擬效果進行對比分析,結果錶明：彊降水的模擬效果與水汽、垂直速度及大氣層結的模擬緊密相關;模式對于這些物理量在各箇時刻的不同模擬效果導緻逐時降水模擬的偏差,對于05時、13時、21時的降水峰值預報分彆為漏報、準確模擬和虛假模擬;彊降水期間,鶴峰中低層大氣維持中性層結,位勢不穩定區在其南側,最終形成彊的濕位溫水平梯度,有利于輻閤上升運動的增彊;逐時降水模擬效果不僅反映瞭降水模擬的精度,還會影響後期大氣層結穩定度的模擬,進而影響後期降水模擬效果。
이용WRF모식대2009년6월29일호북지구적일차특대폭우과정진행수치모의。대24 h루적강수화축시강수적모의결과표명：무론시강도환시락구,모식대호북학봉지구적루적강수모의비상접근실제,단기축시강수적모의여실황차이교대。위료게시영향축시강수모의효과적인자,대학봉지구3개시각적불동모의효과진행대비분석,결과표명：강강수적모의효과여수기、수직속도급대기층결적모의긴밀상관;모식대우저사물리량재각개시각적불동모의효과도치축시강수모의적편차,대우05시、13시、21시적강수봉치예보분별위루보、준학모의화허가모의;강강수기간,학봉중저층대기유지중성층결,위세불은정구재기남측,최종형성강적습위온수평제도,유리우복합상승운동적증강;축시강수모의효과불부반영료강수모의적정도,환회영향후기대기층결은정도적모의,진이영향후기강수모의효과。
Numerical simulation is carried out with WRF model for the heavy rain in Hubei province on 29th Jul,2009.It shows that the simulated accumulated precipitation in Hefeng of Hubei Province is very close to the observations as to both the intensity and the rainfall area.But the hourly rainfall simulation is quite different from the observations.Further analysis is carried out on different simulation effects of three time points to find factors related to hourly precipitation simulation.It shows that heavy rainfall simulation is closely related to the simulation of water vapor,vertical velocity and atmosphere stratification.The different simulation effect at various moments by the model for physical quantities leads to the deviation of hourly precipitation simulation.The simulation for precipitation peak at 05,13 and 21 is omitted,accurate and false respectively.During the heavy precipitation period,atmosphere at the middle and lower level maintains a neutral stratification and potential instability region is on its south side.This situation ultimately leads to a strong horizontal gradient of wet potential temperature,which is beneficial to the enhancement of convergence and ascending motion.Hourly precipitation simulation not only reflects rainfall simulation precision but also affects the latter atmosphere stratification stability simulation,and then affects the latter precipitation simulation results.
