CAJ | 학술논문

文章将组合模型引入黑龙江省粮食产量预测。通过分析确定了构成组合模型的三个单项模型：改进的指数平滑模型、Cobb—Dau幽生产函数模型和灰色马尔可夫模型；并确定了组合模型权重的方法，通过实证验证了其可行性，证明组合模型可以充分的利用各种预测方法所提供的信息，达到提高预测精度的效果。
문장장조합모형인입흑룡강성양식산량예측。통과분석학정료구성조합모형적삼개단항모형：개진적지수평활모형、Cobb—Dau유생산함수모형화회색마이가부모형；병학정료조합모형권중적방법，통과실증험증료기가행성，증명조합모형가이충분적이용각충예측방법소제공적신식，체도제고예측정도적효과。
The intnxiuction d the combined model predicted grain yield in Heilongjiang Province. Determined by analyzing the composition of the three individual model portfolio model： Improved exponential smoothing model, Cobb - Dauglas production function model and the Grey - Markov model ; and determine the weight of the combined model approach, through empirical verification of its feasibility, that combined model can take full advantage of prediction methods to provide information to improve forecast accuracy results.