CAJ | 학술논문

为明确浙江省高致病性禽流感(HPAI)发生的风险水平,我们开展了相关风险因子调查和分析工作.本研究将风险因子等级分为高、较高、中和低4个风险等级,对母源抗体、免疫抗体、家禽密度、饲养设施、禽类混养、饲养场地理位置、水禽和迁徙鸟、活禽市场等风险因子进行了定量评估.通过权重赋值评估浙江省发生的HPAI的风险水平为0.66875,判定为中等,提示浙江省发生禽流感疫情的可能性时刻存在.通过风险因子分析,发现了高致病禽流感防控工作中存在的薄弱环节,明确今后工作的重点,为浙江省HPAI管理和决策提供了依据.
위명학절강성고치병성금류감(HPAI)발생적풍험수평,아문개전료상관풍험인자조사화분석공작.본연구장풍험인자등급분위고、교고、중화저4개풍험등급,대모원항체、면역항체、가금밀도、사양설시、금류혼양、사양장지리위치、수금화천사조、활금시장등풍험인자진행료정량평고.통과권중부치평고절강성발생적HPAI적풍험수평위0.66875,판정위중등,제시절강성발생금류감역정적가능성시각존재.통과풍험인자분석,발현료고치병금류감방공공작중존재적박약배절,명학금후공작적중점,위절강성HPAI관리화결책제공료의거.
Risk factors associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) were investigated and assessed to measure the risk of HPAI occurrences in Zhejiang province. The risk level was categorized into 4 classes (extremely high, high, medium, and low). Risk factors of maternal antibodies, immunity antibodies, poultry density, facility and geographical position of farms, mixed feeding, waterfowl and migratory birds and live birds market etc. were assessed quantitatively. The results showed that the HPAI outbreak risk is 0.66875, which belongs to medium-level. The results suggest that risk of HPAI outbreaks is still in Zhejiang province. The important problems were found through the investigation and analysis, and the results provides a basic reference for the prevention and control of HPAI in Zhejiang province.