CAJ | 학술논문

以哈尔滨市干道路网为研究对象,收集到了该路网上468个路段和163个平面交叉口的道路交通数据,以及1999年至2004年所发生的8510起交通事故数据.分析了事故数据的统计分布特性,应用聚类分析技术确定了路段和交叉口的类别 ,并在此基础上分别建立了事故总体和分事故形态的预测模型.论文探讨了高峰时段的事故次数、事故率与路段v/c之间的定量关系.标定出了24个模型,并形成干道系统事故预测模型库.最后,运用所建立的事故预测模型选取了2010年哈尔滨规划路网的一部分进行实例分析,结果表明了预测模型是有效的.
이합이빈시간도로망위연구대상,수집도료해로망상468개로단화163개평면교차구적도로교통수거,이급1999년지2004년소발생적8510기교통사고수거.분석료사고수거적통계분포특성,응용취류분석기술학정료로단화교차구적유별 ,병재차기출상분별건립료사고총체화분사고형태적예측모형.논문탐토료고봉시단적사고차수、사고솔여로단v/c지간적정량관계.표정출료24개모형,병형성간도계통사고예측모형고.최후,운용소건립적사고예측모형선취료2010년합이빈규화로망적일부분진행실례분석,결과표명료예측모형시유효적.
It relies greatly on the accident prediction models to make effective traffic safety countermeasures. Therefore, by taking Harbin urban arterial network composed of 468 arterial links and 163 at-grade intersections as a case, the broad geometry and traffic flow data of the network were collected, as well as 8 510 accident data occurred on the network during 1999 to 2004. Firstly, the characterist ics of the traffic accident data were analyzed, and the results show that theaccident data follow the Negative Binomial distribution. Secondly, links and inter sections were classified according to the cluster analysis method, and then the accident prediction models that can be used to predict the accident frequencies occurred on each kind of links and intersections were established. Thirdly, the quantitative relationship between the accident index of the links during rushh ours and the v/c of them was discussed. Totally, 24 prediction models were calibrated. Finally, the prediction models were applied to a case study on partial road network of Harbin, which was planned for the target year of 2010. There sults show the fact that the accident prediction models are effective.