CAJ | 학술논문

　　针对分布式电源输出功率的随机性问题，提出基于点估计法的含分布式电源的配电网可靠性评估模型。点估计法可将概率问题转换为确定性数学问题，依据分布式电源输出功率和配网负荷的概率分布构造其估计点，进一步通过分布式电源出力和负荷水平的估计点与配网可靠性之间的映射关系实现配电网可靠性指标的点估计。对IEEE-RBTS Bus6的主馈线F4进行可靠性评估，分析结果表明点估计法可有效实现分布式电源输出功率和配电网负荷水平不确定性的模拟。
　　침대분포식전원수출공솔적수궤성문제，제출기우점고계법적함분포식전원적배전망가고성평고모형。점고계법가장개솔문제전환위학정성수학문제，의거분포식전원수출공솔화배망부하적개솔분포구조기고계점，진일보통과분포식전원출력화부하수평적고계점여배망가고성지간적영사관계실현배전망가고성지표적점고계。대IEEE-RBTS Bus6적주궤선F4진행가고성평고，분석결과표명점고계법가유효실현분포식전원수출공솔화배전망부하수평불학정성적모의。
In allusion to the randomness of output power of distributed generation (DG), a point estimation based reliability evaluation model for distribution network with DG is proposed. The point estimation method can turn a probability problem into a deterministic mathematical problem, so the estimation points can be constructed according to DG output and the probability distribution of load in distribution network, and further to implement the point estimation of reliability indices of distribution network according to the mapping relation between the obtained estimation points of DG output and load level and the reliability of distribution network. The reliability evaluation of the main feeder F4 in IEEE-RBTS Bus6 system is performed, and the results show that using the point estimation the simulation of DG output and the uncertainty of load level of distribution network can be effectively implemented.