CAJ | 학술논문

制定合理的渔业管理计划，实现渔业资源的可持续利用，需对渔业资源进行科学的评估，而渔业资源评估模型则是进行渔业资源评估的重要工具。随着计算机计算能力的提高及在多学科交叉的推动下，近30多年来渔业资源评估模型得到了快速发展。随着渔业资源评估模型日益复杂、多样化，模型的选择、使用难度也相应地增加了，而模型的不恰当运用则可能导致渔业资源管理的失误。本文对渔业资源评估模型的基本结构、主要类型及参数估计所使用的统计模型等方面进行了全面回顾，介绍了目前使用的主要渔业资源评估模型，展示了渔业资源评估模型的发展历程及所取得的进展。同时，文章对渔业资源评估模型中存在的问题进行了探讨，并对其未来的发展进行了展望。
제정합리적어업관리계화，실현어업자원적가지속이용，수대어업자원진행과학적평고，이어업자원평고모형칙시진행어업자원평고적중요공구。수착계산궤계산능력적제고급재다학과교차적추동하，근30다년래어업자원평고모형득도료쾌속발전。수착어업자원평고모형일익복잡、다양화，모형적선택、사용난도야상응지증가료，이모형적불흡당운용칙가능도치어업자원관리적실오。본문대어업자원평고모형적기본결구、주요류형급삼수고계소사용적통계모형등방면진행료전면회고，개소료목전사용적주요어업자원평고모형，전시료어업자원평고모형적발전역정급소취득적진전。동시，문장대어업자원평고모형중존재적문제진행료탐토，병대기미래적발전진행료전망。
Development of rational management plans and correct management are essential to maintain the sus-tainability of fisheries resources. Fisheries management plans should be based on stock assessment and so stock assessment models are important tools for this. Over the last thirty years, fishery stock assessment models experi-enced a golden age and the number of models grew exponentially with improved computer technology and the integration of multidisciplinary research. At the same time, the complexity and diversity of the models makes choosing the correct one increasingly difficult for researchers and abuse of fisheries models may lead to stock col-lapse. In this paper, we reviewed fisheries stock assessment model structure, type, and estimators, i.e. fixed effect, random effect, and hierarchical Bayes to identify the typical models currently used in fisheries stock assessment and track their evolution and development. Meanwhile, the present paper discusses the problems with these mod-els and presents prospects for their future development.