计算机工程与应用
計算機工程與應用
계산궤공정여응용
COMPUTER ENGINEERING AND APPLICATIONS
2013年
15期
263-266,270
,共5页
物流需求%主成分分析%包容性检验%组合模型
物流需求%主成分分析%包容性檢驗%組閤模型
물류수구%주성분분석%포용성검험%조합모형
logistics demand%Principal Component Analysis(PCA)%encompassing tests%combination model
模型选择以及如何进行组合是物流需求组合预测的关键，为了提高物流需求的预测精度，提出一种包容性检验和主成分分析相融合的物流需求预测模型（ET-PCA）。采用多个单一模型对物流需求进行预测，采用包容性检验选择最合理的单一模型，利用PCA对选择的单一模型预测结果进行组合，采用仿真实验对组合模型性能进行测试。结果表明，相对于传统组合模型，ET-PCA较好地解决了物流需求单一预测模型选择及组合问题，更加全面、准确描述了物流需求复杂的变化趋势，提高了物流需求的预测精度和效率，具有一定应用价值。
模型選擇以及如何進行組閤是物流需求組閤預測的關鍵，為瞭提高物流需求的預測精度，提齣一種包容性檢驗和主成分分析相融閤的物流需求預測模型（ET-PCA）。採用多箇單一模型對物流需求進行預測，採用包容性檢驗選擇最閤理的單一模型，利用PCA對選擇的單一模型預測結果進行組閤，採用倣真實驗對組閤模型性能進行測試。結果錶明，相對于傳統組閤模型，ET-PCA較好地解決瞭物流需求單一預測模型選擇及組閤問題，更加全麵、準確描述瞭物流需求複雜的變化趨勢，提高瞭物流需求的預測精度和效率，具有一定應用價值。
모형선택이급여하진행조합시물류수구조합예측적관건，위료제고물류수구적예측정도，제출일충포용성검험화주성분분석상융합적물류수구예측모형（ET-PCA）。채용다개단일모형대물류수구진행예측，채용포용성검험선택최합리적단일모형，이용PCA대선택적단일모형예측결과진행조합，채용방진실험대조합모형성능진행측시。결과표명，상대우전통조합모형，ET-PCA교호지해결료물류수구단일예측모형선택급조합문제，경가전면、준학묘술료물류수구복잡적변화추세，제고료물류수구적예측정도화효솔，구유일정응용개치。
Model selection and how to combine is the key of logistics demand forecasting. In order to improve the forecasting accuracy of logistics demand, a logistics demand forecasting model is proposed based on Encompassing Tests and Principal Component Analysis(ET-PCA). Some single models are used to forecast the logistics demand, and then encompassing tests are used to select good single model. The selected single models are combined by PCA, and the simulation experiment is carried out to test the performance of the combination model on logistics demand data. The simulation results show that, compared with tra-ditional combination model, ET-PCA has solved the problem of how to select and combine the forecasting models. It can be more comprehensive, accurately describe the change trend of logistics demand, and improve the prediction accuracy of logistics demand. It has a good application value.
