CAJ | 학술논문

　　输电线路的实时故障概率的计算是进行电力系统在线风险评估以及实时可靠性计算的重要组成部分。为了计算输电线路的实时故障概率值，根据输电线路的绝缘子、导线、避雷器、杆塔、地线的在线监测数据，分别建立了各个监测量的量化模型，采用未确知有理数理论去确定每层的权重系数，并结合模糊评估法，建立了输电线路实时故障概率的层次评估模型。分析南方电网的故障统计数据，恶劣天气已经成为引起输电线路故障的重要因素。在考虑恶劣天气对输电线路故障概率影响的情况下，提出并建立了考虑输电线路在线监测数据和当前气象条件的输电线路故障概率的实时评估模型。实例分析表明了所提出的输电线实时故障概率评估模型的合理性和有效性。
　　수전선로적실시고장개솔적계산시진행전력계통재선풍험평고이급실시가고성계산적중요조성부분。위료계산수전선로적실시고장개솔치，근거수전선로적절연자、도선、피뢰기、간탑、지선적재선감측수거，분별건립료각개감측량적양화모형，채용미학지유리수이론거학정매층적권중계수，병결합모호평고법，건립료수전선로실시고장개솔적층차평고모형。분석남방전망적고장통계수거，악렬천기이경성위인기수전선로고장적중요인소。재고필악렬천기대수전선로고장개솔영향적정황하，제출병건립료고필수전선로재선감측수거화당전기상조건적수전선로고장개솔적실시평고모형。실례분석표명료소제출적수전선실시고장개솔평고모형적합이성화유효성。
The calculation of transmission line’s real-time fault probability is an important part of real-time risk assessment and reliability calculation of power system. In order to calculate the real-time fault probability value of transmission line, first of all, according to the online monitoring data of the transmission line’s insulator, conductor, lightning arrester, tower, and ground line, the quantitative model of each monitoring parameter is established respectively. Then the theory of unascertained rational numbers is used to determine the weight coefficient of each layer, and combining with fuzzy assessment method, finally a real-time and hierarchical fault probability assessment model of transmission line is established. Through analyzing the failure statistics data of southern power grid, it is found that bad weather has become an important factor causing the fault of transmission line. Considering the effects of bad weather on transmission line’s fault probability, this paper puts forward and sets up a real-time evaluation model of transmission line’s fault probability considering both transmission line’s on-line monitoring data and the current meteorological conditions. The example shows that the proposed transmission line’s real-time failure probability assessment model is reasonable and effective.