CAJ | 학술논문

　　简述了国内外研究气候变化和评估气象变化对小麦生产影响的主要技术方法。分析表明，气候变化及其对冬小麦生产影响研究，主要是围绕气候变暖这条主线进行的。提出评估气候变化影响的主要研究技术途径是通过气候变化事实趋势外推和气候模式产生未来气候情景，通过冬小麦生长发育与气象条件关系的机理或统计模型，模拟未来气候情景下冬小麦生产状况。分析未来气候情景下与现在正常气候状况下，冬小麦生产状况的主要差异及其引起这种差异的主要气象要素的变化趋势。得出应对气候变化的主要措施是从精确栽培的角度研究冬小麦生产应对气候变化的技术措施，提出防范气候变化风险的管理措施，为保障冬小麦生产安全提供决策依据。
　　간술료국내외연구기후변화화평고기상변화대소맥생산영향적주요기술방법。분석표명，기후변화급기대동소맥생산영향연구，주요시위요기후변난저조주선진행적。제출평고기후변화영향적주요연구기술도경시통과기후변화사실추세외추화기후모식산생미래기후정경，통과동소맥생장발육여기상조건관계적궤리혹통계모형，모의미래기후정경하동소맥생산상황。분석미래기후정경하여현재정상기후상황하，동소맥생산상황적주요차이급기인기저충차이적주요기상요소적변화추세。득출응대기후변화적주요조시시종정학재배적각도연구동소맥생산응대기후변화적기술조시，제출방범기후변화풍험적관리조시，위보장동소맥생산안전제공결책의거。
It was briefed on the mainly way at home and abroad for be to research climate change and to evaluate the affect on wheat production by climate change. The analysis showed research on climate change and the affect on wheat production that around the main line of the climate warming outspreads. The reporter raised the main research technology way that produces future climate situation by the climate change facts trend extrapolation and climate patterns, the situation of winter wheat production was simulated on the future climate scenarios, with the mechanism or statistical model of the relationship on the winter wheat growth and meteorological conditions. Analysis on mainly differences of the winter wheat production situation and the trend of the main meteorological elements change about occurrence’s causes in present normal climate conditions and the future climate scenarios. It was gotten a mainly technology measures that study on technology action about dealing with climate change by the direction on precise cultivation, to put forward management measures for preventing climate change risk, in order to ensure the safety of winter wheat production to provide decision basis.