CAJ | 학술논문

　　微电网技术是推动可再生能源开发与利用的有效途径。风力发电是微电网中的重要发电单元，风电的随机性严重影响微电网的运行特性，对微电网潮流的直接预测可以减轻风电随机性对微电网的不利影响。先建立了自适应支持向量机模型，对微电网潮流进行确定性预测，再将马尔科夫链模型和蒙特卡罗模拟方法相结合，对并网和离网2种运行状态下微电网概率潮流进行预测。仿真结果表明，所提方法不仅能够较准确地预测微电网潮流，还能从概率的角度对预测结果所包含的风险进行评估。所得结论为进一步分析和优化系统运行提供了理论依据。
　　미전망기술시추동가재생능원개발여이용적유효도경。풍력발전시미전망중적중요발전단원，풍전적수궤성엄중영향미전망적운행특성，대미전망조류적직접예측가이감경풍전수궤성대미전망적불리영향。선건립료자괄응지지향량궤모형，대미전망조류진행학정성예측，재장마이과부련모형화몽특잡라모의방법상결합，대병망화리망2충운행상태하미전망개솔조류진행예측。방진결과표명，소제방법불부능구교준학지예측미전망조류，환능종개솔적각도대예측결과소포함적풍험진행평고。소득결론위진일보분석화우화계통운행제공료이론의거。
The technology of micro-grid is an effective approach to promote the development and utilization of renewable energy. Wind generation is an important unit of a micro-grid, and its randomness has a great influence on operation characteristic of a micro-grid. The direct power flow forecasting of a micro-grid can reduce the adverse impact caused by wind power randomness. Based on the deterministic power flow forecasting by adaptive support vector machine model, Markov process and Monte Carlo simulation method are combined together to carry out probabilistic forecasting of power flow under the grid-connection and off-grid operation modes. The simulation results show that the proposed approach can accurately forecast the power flow of the micro-grid and assess the risks contained in forecasting results from the perspective of probability. The conclusions provide a theoretical basis for further analyzing and optimizing system operation.