CAJ | 학술논문

　　文章通过对喀什地区1949-2010年自然灾害的各项数据统计分析，该地区发生比较频繁的自然灾害为洪灾、地震灾害、风灾及雹灾。从年际分布规律来看，在各主要自然灾害的发生频次总体上呈现局部时间段波动增长趋势并且灾次的频发期具有周期性变化的特点。从年内分布规律来看，灾害频发期主要出现在春季和夏季。从空间分布规律来看，灾害次数具有明显的区域性，从空间分布规律上主要呈现条带状或块状的分布格局。从行政区划分来看，喀什地区有4个自然灾害频发区，分别是伽师县，叶城县，莎车县和塔什库尔干塔吉克自治县。总体分布特点为，山区多，山区与盆地交界地带多，盆地内部较少；盆地北部为自然灾害频次最为集中，呈现出北多南少，西多东少的基本格局。提出了建立自然灾害预报与警报系统，对灾害进行预测，预报、建立健全法律法规，宣传预防灾害知识，规范人类活动、加大防灾抗灾设施的建设投入，建成完备的防治工程体系、加大灾害多发区灾害保险工作，尽量减少人民的经济损失等防灾对策。
　　문장통과대객십지구1949-2010년자연재해적각항수거통계분석，해지구발생비교빈번적자연재해위홍재、지진재해、풍재급박재。종년제분포규률래간，재각주요자연재해적발생빈차총체상정현국부시간단파동증장추세병차재차적빈발기구유주기성변화적특점。종년내분포규률래간，재해빈발기주요출현재춘계화하계。종공간분포규률래간，재해차수구유명현적구역성，종공간분포규률상주요정현조대상혹괴상적분포격국。종행정구화분래간，객십지구유4개자연재해빈발구，분별시가사현，협성현，사차현화탑십고이간탑길극자치현。총체분포특점위，산구다，산구여분지교계지대다，분지내부교소；분지북부위자연재해빈차최위집중，정현출북다남소，서다동소적기본격국。제출료건립자연재해예보여경보계통，대재해진행예측，예보、건립건전법율법규，선전예방재해지식，규범인류활동、가대방재항재설시적건설투입，건성완비적방치공정체계、가대재해다발구재해보험공작，진량감소인민적경제손실등방재대책。
Through the kashi area 1949-2010 years of natural disasters of statistical analysis, the results show that the area of natural disasters to flood, earthquake, wind and hail damage occur more frequently. In the annual distribution, the main natural disasters occurrence frequency in general are local time fluctuation trend and disaster time and frequent period has the characteristics of the periodic changes. In the years distribution, disasters period more appear in the spring, the summer season. In the space distribution, for the performance of the disaster fre-quency has obvious regional, mainly in the space is banded or block the distribution pattern. From the administra-tive division, the kashi area has four natural disasters area, it is respectively GaShi county, YeCheng county, ShaChe county and tashikuergan tajik autonomous counties. The distribution features are:mountain, mountain and basin border zone, basin internal less; Disaster frequency to northern basin is the most concentrated, show more than the north south, east west less than less basic pattern. Puts forward the natural disaster forecast and warning system, disaster forecast, forecast, establish and perfect the laws and regulations, and publicity and prevention dis-aster knowledge, regulating human activities, increase the disaster prevention disaster relief facilities construction investment, built a complete control engineering system, increase the prewarning disaster casualty insurance work, try to reduce the loss of people's economic disaster prevention countermeasures.