CAJ | 학술논문

　　构建二氧化碳排放强度与人均GDP的EKC曲线，并在此模型中加入能源消费结构的变量，来探讨中国能源消费结构、经济发展水平与碳排放强度之间的关系。结果表明：碳强度随着人均实际GDP的改变呈现出倒“N”型的特征，即碳排放强度随着人均实际GDP的提高有一个先下降，再保持一定的水平略有上升，然后再下降的趋势；能源消费结构影响碳排放强度，煤炭消费占能源消费比重与碳排放强度呈正相关关系，即煤炭消费比重越大，碳排放强度越大；对经济发展与碳排放之间关系进行情景分析表明，我国减排的目标和压力依然很大，为了保证我国承诺的2020年二氧化碳排放强度在2005年的基础上下降40％～45％的目标顺利实现，要实施合理的减排调控政策以及调整能源消费结构。
　　구건이양화탄배방강도여인균GDP적EKC곡선，병재차모형중가입능원소비결구적변량，래탐토중국능원소비결구、경제발전수평여탄배방강도지간적관계。결과표명：탄강도수착인균실제GDP적개변정현출도“N”형적특정，즉탄배방강도수착인균실제GDP적제고유일개선하강，재보지일정적수평략유상승，연후재하강적추세；능원소비결구영향탄배방강도，매탄소비점능원소비비중여탄배방강도정정상관관계，즉매탄소비비중월대，탄배방강도월대；대경제발전여탄배방지간관계진행정경분석표명，아국감배적목표화압력의연흔대，위료보증아국승낙적2020년이양화탄배방강도재2005년적기출상하강40％～45％적목표순리실현，요실시합리적감배조공정책이급조정능원소비결구。
Through building EKC curve for carbon dioxide emissions intensity and per capita GDP and joining the variables of energy consumption structure in this model , the relationship among China's energy consumption struc-ture, the level of economic development and carbon emissions intensity is discussed .The results indicate that the carbon intensity presents inverted N-shape with the variation of real per capita GDP , i.e.first carbon intensity de-clines sharply with the increase of real per capita GDP , then genteelly increases to a certain level , and then sharply dropdowns .Energy consumption structure affects carbon intensity .The carbon emissions intensity is proportional to the coal consumption , that is to say , the greater the coal consumption ratio is , the greater the carbon intensity .Sce-nario analysis on the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions shows that the task of emis -sion-reduction in China is arduous .In order to fulfill the promises of reducing CO 2 emissions per unit GDP by 40%to 45%in 2020 compared with the level of 2005 , we should carry out proper emissions control policies , and adjust energy consumption structure .