CAJ | 학술논문

　　对可靠性增长模型参数进行求解多采用构造极大似然函数，并对似然函数求极值的方法。用极大似然法进行参数优化估计时，有容易受迭代初值的影响不易收敛到全局最优解的缺点，文中采用进化规划（EP）算法，建立以适应函数为目标，求其极大值点即可确定参数最优解的优化模型，不再需要求极值和估计优化变量的初始值即可获得全局近似最优解。为了更好地确保获得全局最优解，进一步保证方程解的精度，进化规划算法采用了并行操作、保留最优个体等方法。新的优化参数求解方法可以在求解效率和收敛性能上达到较好的平衡，能更好地将优化方法与最大似然估计法相结合。最后利用某固体火箭发动机的可靠性增长实验数据验证了该优化方法的有效性和正确性。
　　대가고성증장모형삼수진행구해다채용구조겁대사연함수，병대사연함수구겁치적방법。용겁대사연법진행삼수우화고계시，유용역수질대초치적영향불역수렴도전국최우해적결점，문중채용진화규화（EP）산법，건립이괄응함수위목표，구기겁대치점즉가학정삼수최우해적우화모형，불재수요구겁치화고계우화변량적초시치즉가획득전국근사최우해。위료경호지학보획득전국최우해，진일보보증방정해적정도，진화규화산법채용료병행조작、보류최우개체등방법。신적우화삼수구해방법가이재구해효솔화수렴성능상체도교호적평형，능경호지장우화방법여최대사연고계법상결합。최후이용모고체화전발동궤적가고성증장실험수거험증료해우화방법적유효성화정학성。
Most of solving method for reliability growth model parameters is to structure maximum likelihood function and extremum on the likelihood function. When using the maximum likelihood method for parameter optimization, it is not easy to converge to the global optimal solution by the effect of iterative initial value, evolutionary programming (EP)algorithm is used in this paper, establish the fitness function, find great value point to determine optimization model of the parameters optimal solution, and no longer need to require extreme value and estimate initial value of the optimization variable, global approximate optimal solution can be obtained. In order to better ensure global optimal so-lution, to further ensure the accuracy of the equations, a parallel operation and retain the best individual and other methods are used in evolutionary programming algorithm. The new method for solving the optimization parameters can achieve a better balance in the solving efficiency and convergence performance and better combined optimization meth-ods with maximum likelihood estimation method. The validity and correctness of the optimization method is verified in the last of the paper through the experimental data in the reliability growth process of a solid rocket motor.