CAJ | 학술논문

　　为了有效地实现电网二次设备的风险评估，设计了一套设备类型可靠性指标、供电区可靠性指标和设备厂家可靠性指标，以及基于设备全寿命理论的时限风险指标，建立了一种计及时限失效水平的电力系统二次设备多因素风险评估模型。利用模糊隶属函数的抽象评判能力和层次分析法对该模型进行求解。基于某省电网2011年二次设备运行统计数据，对这些二次设备按所述模型进行了多因素风险评估，结果验证了所提模型与求解方法的实用性和可操作性。
　　위료유효지실현전망이차설비적풍험평고，설계료일투설비류형가고성지표、공전구가고성지표화설비엄가가고성지표，이급기우설비전수명이론적시한풍험지표，건립료일충계급시한실효수평적전력계통이차설비다인소풍험평고모형。이용모호대속함수적추상평판능력화층차분석법대해모형진행구해。기우모성전망2011년이차설비운행통계수거，대저사이차설비안소술모형진행료다인소풍험평고，결과험증료소제모형여구해방법적실용성화가조작성。
In order to perform effectively the risk assessment of secondary equipments, designing a set of assessment indexes including that for equipment-type reliability, power-supply area reliability and equipment–producer reliabily as well as that taking the equipment-lifespan-based duration-failure-level into consideration, this paper proposes a general multifactor risk assessment model for secondary equipments, and solves the model by using the abstract evaluation ability of fuzzy membership functions and the analytic hierarchy process. Based on the statistical data of secondary equipments operation in a certain province, 2011, their risk assessment is carried out with the proposed model, and the results show that the model and its solving are feasible and in operability.