CAJ | 학술논문

　　在阐述干旱灾害风险基本概念的基础上，分析了农业干旱灾害风险动态评估的难点。通过作物生长模型———DNDC模型模拟作物逐日生长，得到最终的粮食产量。采用情景分析方法，对不同气象条件下的作物产量进行估计，进而计算作物粮食因旱损失，实现农业干旱灾害风险动态分析。研究选择辽宁省为研究区，以玉米作物为代表，空间分析单元为县级行政区，利用15年的序列数据进行粮食因旱损失评估，模型模拟辽宁省的总误差控制在15％左右。风险分析结果表明，辽宁省西北部地区干旱灾害风险高于其他地区，这也与辽宁省干旱实际情况相吻合。
　　재천술간한재해풍험기본개념적기출상，분석료농업간한재해풍험동태평고적난점。통과작물생장모형———DNDC모형모의작물축일생장，득도최종적양식산량。채용정경분석방법，대불동기상조건하적작물산량진행고계，진이계산작물양식인한손실，실현농업간한재해풍험동태분석。연구선택요녕성위연구구，이옥미작물위대표，공간분석단원위현급행정구，이용15년적서렬수거진행양식인한손실평고，모형모의요녕성적총오차공제재15％좌우。풍험분석결과표명，요녕성서북부지구간한재해풍험고우기타지구，저야여요녕성간한실제정황상문합。
This paper reviewed the basic concepts of the drought disaster risk and addressed the difficulties of dy-namical assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk .To obtain the final yields of crop ,the DNDC model was used to simulate the crop daily growth .The dynamical assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk was derived from the esti-mation of the crop yields under different weather conditions by using scenario analysis method and the further calculation of the yield losses caused by drought .A 15-years sequence data of maize growth in Liaoning Province ,counties as the spatial analysis units ,was used in this paper to assess the losses caused by drought .The total error of model simulation was about 16% .The risk analysis results showed that the drought disaster risk in northwest region of Liaoning Province was higher than in other regions ,which is consistent with the real drought situation of Liaoning Province .