CAJ | 학술논문

　　文章首先阐述财务风险、财务危机和财务预警理论，指出建立以现金流量为基础的财务预警的优势，接着按照随机原则选取上海证券交易所54家资产规模相近的 ST 和非 ST 上市公司为样本，基于2010年的财报数据，运用因子分析法提取公共因子，并在此基础上建立了 F 预警模型，进而对该模型进行有效性测试。研究结果表明：以现金流量指标为基础的财务预警模型能够对企业的财务危机起到有效的预警作用。
　　문장수선천술재무풍험、재무위궤화재무예경이론，지출건립이현금류량위기출적재무예경적우세，접착안조수궤원칙선취상해증권교역소54가자산규모상근적 ST 화비 ST 상시공사위양본，기우2010년적재보수거，운용인자분석법제취공공인자，병재차기출상건립료 F 예경모형，진이대해모형진행유효성측시。연구결과표명：이현금류량지표위기출적재무예경모형능구대기업적재무위궤기도유효적예경작용。
After the analysis of the financial risk,the financial crisis and the financial early warning theo-ry,the paper highlights the advantages of establishing a cash flow-based financial early warning.54 ST and non-ST listed companies,which are almost the same size,are randomly sampled,and based on 2010 financial statements,the factor analysis approach is used to extract the common factors and an F-warning model is re-sultantly established and tested in terms of validity.The research result shows that the financial early warning model based on cash flow indicators can play an effective role in early warning of the enterprise′s financial crisis.