CAJ | 학술논문

　　为了能更有效地分析和理解传染性疾病的传播，提出了一个新颖的 SIR 模型，在这个传播模型里同时考虑了影响疾病传播行为的2个因素：感染延迟和非均匀传播。基于平均场理论和大量的数值仿真，给出了疾病传播临界值的解析公式，并发现感染延迟和非均匀传播对临界值影响截然不同：感染延迟能够在很大程度上减小传播阈值，促进疾病在人群中的传播；而非均匀传播能够增大传播临界值，阻碍疾病的大规模传播。当前的研究结果有助于深入理解真实复杂系统中的疾病传播行为，充分考虑感染延迟、传播机制和实际人群的拓扑结构等因素在疾病传播中的作用，从而为制定有效的传染病预防和控制措施提供理论依据。
　　위료능경유효지분석화리해전염성질병적전파，제출료일개신영적 SIR 모형，재저개전파모형리동시고필료영향질병전파행위적2개인소：감염연지화비균균전파。기우평균장이론화대량적수치방진，급출료질병전파림계치적해석공식，병발현감염연지화비균균전파대림계치영향절연불동：감염연지능구재흔대정도상감소전파역치，촉진질병재인군중적전파；이비균균전파능구증대전파림계치，조애질병적대규모전파。당전적연구결과유조우심입리해진실복잡계통중적질병전파행위，충분고필감염연지、전파궤제화실제인군적탁복결구등인소재질병전파중적작용，종이위제정유효적전염병예방화공제조시제공이론의거。
In order to analyze and understand the spreading behavior of infectious diseases , the authors propose to examine susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model.The researchers simultaneously introduce into the epidemic model the two factors: influencing disease spreading behavior , and infection delay and nonuniform transmission , u-tilizing the SIR model.Based on the mean-field approximation and large-scale numerical simulations, the analytical results of critical thresholds of disease spreading were derived , along with the infection delay and the nonuniform transmission having a distinct impact on the critical threshold .The infection delay can greatly decrease the critical threshold and facilitate the spread of epidemics , while the nonuniform transmission can augment the critical thresh -old and hinder the epidemic spreading in complex networks .Current results are conducive to further understand the epidemic spreading inside the complex real systems , as well as to fully consider the roles of infection delay , trans-mission factors and topological structure of population in the spreading of diseases .The results also provide a num-ber of theoretical evidence to design more effective epidemic prevention and containment measures .