气候与环境研究
氣候與環境研究
기후여배경연구
CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
2013年
3期
387-396
,共10页
气候学%降水%Mann-Kendall检验%经验正交函数(EOF)分析%降水等级%华东
氣候學%降水%Mann-Kendall檢驗%經驗正交函數(EOF)分析%降水等級%華東
기후학%강수%Mann-Kendall검험%경험정교함수(EOF)분석%강수등급%화동
Climatology%Precipitation%Mann-Kendall test%EOF analysis%Precipitation grades%East China
根据华东地区1961～2010年逐日降水量台站观测资料，利用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和经验正交函数（EOF）分析等方法揭示不同强度降水日数的时空演变特征。结果表明，华东地区的小雨日数为总雨日数的72.42%，占总雨日数的最大比重。同时发现小雨日数和总雨日数（暴雨和大暴雨日数）表现为显著的减少（增加）趋势，说明总雨日数的减少主要是由于小雨日数的减少所致。EOF 分析结果显示总雨日和小雨日的主要 EOF 模态在空间上表现出全场一致的减少趋势以及南北反相位的特征。福建中部既是总雨日数和小雨日数最大的区域，也是两者减少趋势最明显的地区。暴雨日数和大暴雨日数高值中心出现的区域基本重合，大致在浙江-江西-安徽三省交界处。
根據華東地區1961～2010年逐日降水量檯站觀測資料，利用趨勢分析、Mann-Kendall檢驗和經驗正交函數（EOF）分析等方法揭示不同彊度降水日數的時空縯變特徵。結果錶明，華東地區的小雨日數為總雨日數的72.42%，佔總雨日數的最大比重。同時髮現小雨日數和總雨日數（暴雨和大暴雨日數）錶現為顯著的減少（增加）趨勢，說明總雨日數的減少主要是由于小雨日數的減少所緻。EOF 分析結果顯示總雨日和小雨日的主要 EOF 模態在空間上錶現齣全場一緻的減少趨勢以及南北反相位的特徵。福建中部既是總雨日數和小雨日數最大的區域，也是兩者減少趨勢最明顯的地區。暴雨日數和大暴雨日數高值中心齣現的區域基本重閤，大緻在浙江-江西-安徽三省交界處。
근거화동지구1961～2010년축일강수량태참관측자료，이용추세분석、Mann-Kendall검험화경험정교함수（EOF）분석등방법게시불동강도강수일수적시공연변특정。결과표명，화동지구적소우일수위총우일수적72.42%，점총우일수적최대비중。동시발현소우일수화총우일수（폭우화대폭우일수）표현위현저적감소（증가）추세，설명총우일수적감소주요시유우소우일수적감소소치。EOF 분석결과현시총우일화소우일적주요 EOF 모태재공간상표현출전장일치적감소추세이급남북반상위적특정。복건중부기시총우일수화소우일수최대적구역，야시량자감소추세최명현적지구。폭우일수화대폭우일수고치중심출현적구역기본중합，대치재절강-강서-안휘삼성교계처。
The spatial and temporal distributions of rainy days with different precipitation intensities over East China were revealed using trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) analysis methods on observed daily precipitation data for East China between 1961 and 2010. The results show that light precipitation rainy days made up 72.42%of the total number of rainy days, which was more than the other three precipitation grades. It was also evident that the number of light precipitation rainy days decreased and the total number of torrential and heavy precipitation days increased significantly over the study period. The EOF analysis results indicated that the two dominant EOF modes, number of light precipitation rainy days and total number of rainy days, decreased over the whole of East China and had opposite phases in northern and southern East China. The areas with the highest total numbers of rainy days and light precipitation days were in the middle of Fujian Province, where both parameters decreased the most. However, the areas with the highest numbers of torrential rain and heavy rain days were Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces.
