CAJ | 학술논문

　　WRF模式作为一个中尺度气候模式，其分辨率从几米到几千公里，其自身的双向嵌套特征也为进行动力尺度下推提供了有力条件。本文利用WRF模式和传统的统计方法对研究区的气温进行尺度下推。首先，通过动力下推得到不同分辨率下的气温空间分布，并选取15个气象站点进行点对点验证，为了更明显观察不同尺度间的差异，对不同尺度的输出与ANUSPLIN插值结果进行比对，结果显示动力尺度下推中，分辨率越高模拟效果越好。其次，我们采用传统的统计下推方法，从27km下推到3km分辨率，并与WRF和ANUSPLIN插值在该尺度的结果进行对比分析，结果显示统计下推结果的趋势与动力下推的插值结果是一致的，但具有明显的马赛克效果，通过分析认为，这与统计方法的尺度下推只考虑高程信息的变化对气温的影响，而未考虑其他因素有关，如若在下推时加入更多的变量，如对温度有较大影响的坡度、坡向、土地覆被类型等因素，综合分析不同尺度之间的关系，会使下推结果有所改善。
　　WRF모식작위일개중척도기후모식，기분변솔종궤미도궤천공리，기자신적쌍향감투특정야위진행동력척도하추제공료유력조건。본문이용WRF모식화전통적통계방법대연구구적기온진행척도하추。수선，통과동력하추득도불동분변솔하적기온공간분포，병선취15개기상참점진행점대점험증，위료경명현관찰불동척도간적차이，대불동척도적수출여ANUSPLIN삽치결과진행비대，결과현시동력척도하추중，분변솔월고모의효과월호。기차，아문채용전통적통계하추방법，종27km하추도3km분변솔，병여WRF화ANUSPLIN삽치재해척도적결과진행대비분석，결과현시통계하추결과적추세여동력하추적삽치결과시일치적，단구유명현적마새극효과，통과분석인위，저여통계방법적척도하추지고필고정신식적변화대기온적영향，이미고필기타인소유관，여약재하추시가입경다적변량，여대온도유교대영향적파도、파향、토지복피류형등인소，종합분석불동척도지간적관계，회사하추결과유소개선。
Due to intensified global warming, more and more global and regional issues become the focus of re-search. In the context of global scale change, the mechanism of how regional climate makes feedback to global environment change and how regional climate change influences large-scale environment in turn is a difficult point for climate research. However, the transformation between scales provides ideas to solve these difficulties. With the development of climate models, nesting regional climate model into global climate models to simulate is an effective downscaling way, however the resolution limitations of the regional climate model cause simula-Due to intensified global warming, more and more global and regional issues become the focus of re-search. In the context of global scale change, the mechanism of how regional climate makes feedback to global environment change and how regional climate change influences large-scale environment in turn is a difficult point for climate research. However, the transformation between scales provides ideas to solve these difficulties. With the development of climate models, nesting regional climate model into global climate models to simulate is an effective downscaling way, however the resolution limitations of the regional climate model cause simula-tion accuracy of mountainous areas and other complex terrain much lower than expected. WRF model, a meso-scale climate model with resolution from several meters to thousands kilometers and with two-way nested fea-tures, provides opportunities for transforming between scales dynamically. In this paper, we firstly use the WRF model to simulate the temperature at different scales and compare with 15 climate-stations’in-site value. Through the comparison, we can conclude that the simulated values are more similar with the measured ones with the resolution becomes better. Then we used statistical downscaling method to downscale the temperature from 27km to 3km and compared with the WRF downscaling results and ANUSPLIN interpolation. The results showed that the downscaling from statistical method had the same tendency with the WRF downscaling and ANUSPLIN interpolation results, but compared with the latter, the former downscaling had obvious Mosaic ef-fect. The statistical based downscaling method only considered the influence of elevation change on temperature not other factors, while the temperature is influenced by various factors such as slope, slope aspect and land cov-er types. In the further research we will consider more factors and analyze the relationship between temperature and related factors more comprehensively, in this way we can make the statistical downscaling more realistic.