CAJ | 학술논문

　　对于已经运行多年的油田管道，为了及时掌握管道腐蚀现状以及对管道运行状况进行科学评价，建立了一种埋地钢制管道腐蚀状况预测模型。结合规范 SY/T 6151-2009《钢质管道管体腐蚀损伤评价方法》和改进的灰色-马尔可夫链模型，阐述应用改进的灰色-马尔可夫链模型预测管壁腐蚀状况的具体方法。以辽河油田曙一联至曙五联集输管道为例，计算得到该管壁腐蚀状态分布的预测值。结果显示，利用改进的灰色-马尔可夫链模型得到的计算值与实际检测值对应的腐蚀状态一致，在检测数据少的情况下，可对管道剩余使用寿命做出准确预测。
　　대우이경운행다년적유전관도，위료급시장악관도부식현상이급대관도운행상황진행과학평개，건립료일충매지강제관도부식상황예측모형。결합규범 SY/T 6151-2009《강질관도관체부식손상평개방법》화개진적회색-마이가부련모형，천술응용개진적회색-마이가부련모형예측관벽부식상황적구체방법。이료하유전서일련지서오련집수관도위례，계산득도해관벽부식상태분포적예측치。결과현시，이용개진적회색-마이가부련모형득도적계산치여실제검측치대응적부식상태일치，재검측수거소적정황하，가대관도잉여사용수명주출준학예측。
A prediction model of corrosion states is developed for buried steel pipelines in order to collect the current corrosion states opportunely and evaluate the operating conditions scientifically .A method of predicting corrosion states for the wall of pipe is described by applying the evaluation SY /T 6151-2009“Method of Steel Pipelines Corrosion Damage ” and the theory of modified Gray -Markov chain.Taking the gathering pipeline of Shuyilian -Shuwulian in Liaohe Oilfield for example,the corrosion states for the wall of pipe are predicted.The results show that the calculated value by modified Gray -Markov chain model has a good agreement with the detected value .The model will make an accurate prediction of the pipeline in a small number of test data .