CAJ | 학술논문

依据湖漫水库1966-2012年间46 a的年径流量和降雨量的实测资料，综合采用统计方法和Mann-Kendall检验法分析降雨量和径流量的历史变化趋势，及降雨量和径流量之间的相关性，为今后水库的运行管理提供技术支持。分析结果表明：对于降雨量，年际变化不均匀，各月间差异较大，呈明显下降趋势的为4～6月以及10月；对于径流量，月际变化呈下降趋势的月份为3～5月以及7月份；1980年以来，降雨量和径流量总体趋势呈现上升趋势，枯水年的频率减小，特大洪水发生频率呈增大趋势。
의거호만수고1966-2012년간46 a적년경류량화강우량적실측자료，종합채용통계방법화Mann-Kendall검험법분석강우량화경류량적역사변화추세，급강우량화경류량지간적상관성，위금후수고적운행관리제공기술지지。분석결과표명：대우강우량，년제변화불균균，각월간차이교대，정명현하강추세적위4～6월이급10월；대우경류량，월제변화정하강추세적월빈위3～5월이급7월빈；1980년이래，강우량화경류량총체추세정현상승추세，고수년적빈솔감소，특대홍수발생빈솔정증대추세。
Based on the observed runoff and precipitation of Human Reservoir , the traditional statistical method and the Mann-Kendall test method are combined to detect temporal and spatial trends of these series , and analyze their correlation , to provide scientific references for reservoir operation in future .The results show that the inter-annual variation of the pre-cipitation is uneven , and the monthly precipitation significantly decreases in summer ( from April to June ) and October;monthly runoff decreases in March , April, May and July.In addition, since 1980s, the overall runoff and the overall pre-cipitation are showing increasing tends , meanwhile, the occurrence frequency of the low flow year decreases .Measures should be taken to prevent flood hazards in future for the management of Human Reservoir .