南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER
2013年
5期
91-94,102
,共5页
易庆林%胡大儒%代天凡%李世贵
易慶林%鬍大儒%代天凡%李世貴
역경림%호대유%대천범%리세귀
滑坡%小波分析%降雨%库水位%稳定性%周期%趋势预测
滑坡%小波分析%降雨%庫水位%穩定性%週期%趨勢預測
활파%소파분석%강우%고수위%은정성%주기%추세예측
landslide%waveletanalysis%rainfal%reservoir level%stability%cycle%tendency prediction
对于有多个GPS监测点的滑坡，通常只研究个别代表性较强的点的位移，以此近似反映滑坡整体变形情况，但这种以点代面的方法与实际相差较大。现利用三峡库区某滑坡长期地表位移监测资料，根据各监测点位移对滑坡整体位移的贡献率，求得综合位移曲线，再利用小波分析等数学方法推导综合位移方程，据此分析了外界因素(降雨、库水位)对滑坡变形影响机理及周期。结果表明：该滑坡现处于潜在不稳定状态，降雨和库水位对滑坡的影响周期约为12个月。应用滑坡总位移方程进行验证性预测后显示，其预测精度达到92%，因此该方程能更真实地反映滑坡稳定性现状和发展趋势，对同类滑坡的研究具有借鉴价值。
對于有多箇GPS鑑測點的滑坡，通常隻研究箇彆代錶性較彊的點的位移，以此近似反映滑坡整體變形情況，但這種以點代麵的方法與實際相差較大。現利用三峽庫區某滑坡長期地錶位移鑑測資料，根據各鑑測點位移對滑坡整體位移的貢獻率，求得綜閤位移麯線，再利用小波分析等數學方法推導綜閤位移方程，據此分析瞭外界因素(降雨、庫水位)對滑坡變形影響機理及週期。結果錶明：該滑坡現處于潛在不穩定狀態，降雨和庫水位對滑坡的影響週期約為12箇月。應用滑坡總位移方程進行驗證性預測後顯示，其預測精度達到92%，因此該方程能更真實地反映滑坡穩定性現狀和髮展趨勢，對同類滑坡的研究具有藉鑒價值。
대우유다개GPS감측점적활파，통상지연구개별대표성교강적점적위이，이차근사반영활파정체변형정황，단저충이점대면적방법여실제상차교대。현이용삼협고구모활파장기지표위이감측자료，근거각감측점위이대활파정체위이적공헌솔，구득종합위이곡선，재이용소파분석등수학방법추도종합위이방정，거차분석료외계인소(강우、고수위)대활파변형영향궤리급주기。결과표명：해활파현처우잠재불은정상태，강우화고수위대활파적영향주기약위12개월。응용활파총위이방정진행험증성예측후현시，기예측정도체도92%，인차해방정능경진실지반영활파은정성현상화발전추세，대동류활파적연구구유차감개치。
For a landslide with multiple GPS monitoring locations, only the displacements ata fewtypical locations were investi-gated and used to representthe overal deformation of the landslide, which often induces differentresults with the actual condi-tions. In this paper, the surface displacementmonitoring data of a landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area were adopted to obtain contribution rate of each monitoring displacementto the overal deformation, and then to determine the overall displace-mentcurve. The mathematical method waveletanalysis was used to derive the overall displacementequation, and thus to analyze the influence mechanism and cycle of external factors ( rainfall and water level) on the landslide deformation. The results showed thatthe landslide is potentially unstable atpresent, and the cycle of effects of rainfall and water level on the landslide deforma-tion c is about12 months. The prediction accuracy of displacementis about92% using the overal displacementcurve. This method can reflectthe stability situation and developmenttrend of landslide accurately and provide references for similar land-slides.
