CAJ | 학술논문

为了全面分析云贵两省水资源利用与经济发展之间关系的动态变化，利用脱钩弹性模型评价了云贵两省2001年-2010年间用水总量与生产总值、农业用水量与农业增加值、工业用水量与工业增加值之间的脱钩关系。结果表明：云贵两省水资源利用与经济发展脱钩关系整体较差；其中农业用水脱钩关系最差，两省均有50%的年份为强、弱耦合；两省工业用水脱钩关系分别有30%和20%的年份为强耦合；用水总量脱钩关系相对较好，两省均有70%的年份为强、弱脱钩。经济增长缓慢、用水效率偏低、用水结构不合理是造成脱钩关系不佳的主要原因。对比发现，西部大开发战略的深入对于改善水资源利用与经济发展间关系具有积极意义，使两省在“十一五”期间的脱钩关系较“十五”期间有所好转。
위료전면분석운귀량성수자원이용여경제발전지간관계적동태변화，이용탈구탄성모형평개료운귀량성2001년-2010년간용수총량여생산총치、농업용수량여농업증가치、공업용수량여공업증가치지간적탈구관계。결과표명：운귀량성수자원이용여경제발전탈구관계정체교차；기중농업용수탈구관계최차，량성균유50%적년빈위강、약우합；량성공업용수탈구관계분별유30%화20%적년빈위강우합；용수총량탈구관계상대교호，량성균유70%적년빈위강、약탈구。경제증장완만、용수효솔편저、용수결구불합리시조성탈구관계불가적주요원인。대비발현，서부대개발전략적심입대우개선수자원이용여경제발전간관계구유적겁의의，사량성재“십일오”기간적탈구관계교“십오”기간유소호전。
Based on a systematic summary of the studies on decoupling theory and relevant methods, the decoupling elast icity model was employed to investigate the decoupling relationships( DRs) between total water use( TWU) and provincial GDP, agri-cultural water use( AWU) and agricult ural added value( AAV ) , and industrial water use( IWU ) and industrial added value ( IAV) , respectively, which were used to analyze the dynamic relat ionship bet ween water use and economic developmentof Yun-nan and Guizhou Provinces from 2001 to 2010, the first ten years of the Great Western Development Strategy in China. The re-sults indicated that the overall DR between water use and economic development is highly undesirable in both of the two prov-inces. Specifical y, among the three groups of DRs, the DR of AWU was the worst with strong or weak coupling in half of the 10 years in the two provinces;the DR of IWU is slightly better with st rong coupling respectively in 3 of the 10 years in Yunnan and in 2 of the 10 years in Guizhou;while the DR of TWU is the best with strong or weak decoupling in 7 of the 10 years in the two provinces. The sloweconomic growth, lowwater use efficiency, and unreasonable water use structure were the main factors to cause the unfavorable decoupling relationships. The five-year based DR has been improved in the 11th FYP compared with that in the 10th FYP, which suggested the Great Western Development Strat egy plays a positive role in coordinating the relat ionship between water use and economic development.