CAJ | 학술논문

基于12种环境因子和草胡椒（Peperomia pellucida）在全球649个地理分布记录，应用 MaxEnt 模型和ArcGis 9.3软件，定量地预测我国新外来入侵植物草胡椒在我国的潜在分布区域和风险等级.结果表明：通过接受者操作特征（receiver operating characteristics，ROC）曲线分析法的验证，训练数据和验证数据的曲线下面积（area under the ROC curve，AUC）高达0.956和0.963，表明预测效果比较好；发现最湿月份雨量、昼夜温差与年温差比值、最冷季度平均温度、最冷季度雨量、海拔等是影响草胡椒入侵风险的主要环境因素.此外，提出了入侵风险综合评估的计算方法，按草胡椒在我国34个省区的入侵风险指数，将我国分成4个区域：高危风险区（台湾、香港、澳门、广东、广西和海南），中度风险区（上海、福建和云南），低风险区（浙江、湖北、江苏、安徽、江西、西藏、湖南、四川、贵州）和非适生区（内蒙古、北京、黑龙江、吉林、天津、宁夏、山东、山西、新疆、河北、河南、甘肃、辽宁、重庆、陕西和青海）.目前，草胡椒的实际分布远未达其最大潜在分布范围，因此应该重视其危害性，加强监测和综合管理.
기우12충배경인자화초호초（Peperomia pellucida）재전구649개지리분포기록，응용 MaxEnt 모형화ArcGis 9.3연건，정량지예측아국신외래입침식물초호초재아국적잠재분포구역화풍험등급.결과표명：통과접수자조작특정（receiver operating characteristics，ROC）곡선분석법적험증，훈련수거화험증수거적곡선하면적（area under the ROC curve，AUC）고체0.956화0.963，표명예측효과비교호；발현최습월빈우량、주야온차여년온차비치、최랭계도평균온도、최랭계도우량、해발등시영향초호초입침풍험적주요배경인소.차외，제출료입침풍험종합평고적계산방법，안초호초재아국34개성구적입침풍험지수，장아국분성4개구역：고위풍험구（태만、향항、오문、엄동、엄서화해남），중도풍험구（상해、복건화운남），저풍험구（절강、호북、강소、안휘、강서、서장、호남、사천、귀주）화비괄생구（내몽고、북경、흑룡강、길림、천진、저하、산동、산서、신강、하북、하남、감숙、료녕、중경、협서화청해）.목전，초호초적실제분포원미체기최대잠재분포범위，인차응해중시기위해성，가강감측화종합관리.
Summary In recent years,new alien plants have constantly been invading China as a result of an increase of foreign exchanges.Peperomia pellucida (L.) Kunth,a species that originated from tropical America,is one of the alien species recently found in Shanghai.Its potential geographical distribution range and habitats of the species are still unknown.Scientists have applied a variety of ecological niche models to predict the risk of exotic plant invasions in China.Among these ecological niche models,maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model has higher accuracy of predicted results with small sample size. <br> According to 12 environmental variables from the global climate environment database (http://www. worldclim.org/) and 649 occurrence records of P.pellucida in the world from the global biodiversity database (http://data.gbif.org/welcome.htm) and the Chinese Virtual Herbarium (http://www.cvh.org.cn/cms/),a prediction of P.pellucida potential distribution was conducted using MaxEnt model and ArcGis 9.3 software.In this prediction,12 environmental variables were used,including precipitation of wettest month,mean diurnal temperature range,isothermality,precipitation of warmest quarter,mean temperature of coldest quarter,variance in precipitation seasonality,precipitation of coldest quarter,temperature annual range,altitude,precipitation of driest month,mean temperature of warmest quarter,and mean temperature of driest quarter.When modeling,the occurrence data and environmental variables were firstly imported into the MaxEnt,and 75% of the occurrence data to predict the risk(training data)and the other(testing data)to test the accuracy were used.The raster layer of P.pellucida was gotten in the global potential distribution in ASCII format,then was imported into ArcGis for further analyses,and the potential suitable areas of P.pellucida in China was gotten.Finally,the result was confirmed by the ROC(receiver operating characteristics) curve analytical method,and the AUC(area under the ROC curve) of the training data and testing data was as high as 0.956 and 0.963,respectively. <br> The predicted result showed that precipitation of the wettest month,isothermality,mean temperature of coldest quarter,precipitation of coldest quarter,altitude were the main environmental variables that affected the invasion risk of P. pellucida .The distribution probability of P. pellucida increased with the increase of precipitation of wettest month,isothermality and mean temperature of coldest quarter.The low altitude regions in China were of higher risk for P. pellucida to invade. Meanwhile, a calculation method to evaluate comprehensively the invasion risk was put forward.According to the invasion grades for P.pellucida in 34 provinces,municipalities,and metropolis(directly under the jurisdiction of the central government)in China,the country is divided into four regions including high risk area (Taiwan,HongKong,Macao,Guangdong,Guangxi and Hainan),moderate risk area (Shanghai,Fujian and Yunnan),low risk area (Zhejiang,Hubei,Jiangsu, Anhui,Jiangxi, Tibet, Hu??nan, Sichuan and Guizhou) and non-suitable area (Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Heilongjiang,Jilin,Tianjin,Ningxia,Shandong,Shanxi,Xinjiang,Hebei,He??nan,Gansu,Liaoning,Chongqing, Shaanxi and Qinghai). <br> In a conclusion, P. pellucida has a wide range of potential distribution regions including Taiwan, HongKong,Guangdong,Guangxi and Hainan.The actual distribution of P.pellucida is far narrower than its current maximum range of potential distribution,suggesting that it may continue to spread.Therefore,we should pay more attentions to the harming effects of the weed,strengthen monitoring and integrated management.