CAJ | 학술논문

本文从研究人口抚养比入手建立人口增长的差分方程组模型，据此推算人口总量和人口抚养比的变化趋势。结果表明：人口老龄化有一个极限，不会无限制地恶化下去。同时，我国生育率控制指标的最佳调节时机至少还要再等待20年，相当长的一段时期内仍须维持现行计划生育政策不变，稳定低生育率水平，积极应对人口老龄化。
본문종연구인구무양비입수건립인구증장적차분방정조모형，거차추산인구총량화인구무양비적변화추세。결과표명：인구노령화유일개겁한，불회무한제지악화하거。동시，아국생육솔공제지표적최가조절시궤지소환요재등대20년，상당장적일단시기내잉수유지현행계화생육정책불변，은정저생육솔수평，적겁응대인구노령화。
From research on dependency ratio to start , this paper sets up a module of difference equations on population growth, and calculates the change trend of population and dependency ratio. The result shows:there is limit to population ag-ing while it will not get worse indefinitely. The opportunity of population policy adjustment in China would arise after at least 20 years, we should maintain the current family planning policy ,low fertility rate within a long duration and deal with popula-tion aging actively.