CAJ | 학술논문

以环境库兹涅茨理论为基础，通过对广东省1991-2011年的经济发展与废水排放相关数据进行分析，建立了广东省经济增长与废水排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）计量模型。结果表明：1）广东省废水排放总量、生活污水排放量与GDP之间存在较明显的库兹涅兹曲线关系。2）工业废水排放量与GDP之间出现了脱钩效应，工业生产对资源环境压力逐步降低。3）生活污水排放量增长却相对较快，逐渐成为废水排放的主体，致使滨海水体中无机氮与磷酸盐的含量呈现出逐年递增的趋势，滨海地区水质富营养化日趋严重，赤潮发生的频率逐渐增多，直接威胁到滨海地区水体功能的正常发挥。4）从渔获率的年际变化来看：近年来广东省滨海水域生物多样性有所恢复，但形势仍不容乐观。尽管EKC理论表明经济增长最终会改善环境质量，但这是有前提条件的。广东省必须在发展经济的同时，制定合理的经济发展与环境保护政策，建立滨海生态环境保护区，实现区域经济与环境的和谐发展。
이배경고자열자이론위기출，통과대광동성1991-2011년적경제발전여폐수배방상관수거진행분석，건립료광동성경제증장여폐수배방적배경고자열자곡선（EKC）계량모형。결과표명：1）광동성폐수배방총량、생활오수배방량여GDP지간존재교명현적고자열자곡선관계。2）공업폐수배방량여GDP지간출현료탈구효응，공업생산대자원배경압력축보강저。3）생활오수배방량증장각상대교쾌，축점성위폐수배방적주체，치사빈해수체중무궤담여린산염적함량정현출축년체증적추세，빈해지구수질부영양화일추엄중，적조발생적빈솔축점증다，직접위협도빈해지구수체공능적정상발휘。4）종어획솔적년제변화래간：근년래광동성빈해수역생물다양성유소회복，단형세잉불용악관。진관EKC이론표명경제증장최종회개선배경질량，단저시유전제조건적。광동성필수재발전경제적동시，제정합리적경제발전여배경보호정책，건립빈해생태배경보호구，실현구역경제여배경적화해발전。
With the rapid economic development, resource and environmental pollution problems have gradually become serious, the limitedness of resources and importance of environment are gaining more and more public attention. The paper analyzes the relationship between economic development and coastal environment in Guangdong province during 1991-2011. An Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) econometric mode of the relationship between economic growth and waste water discharge in Guangdong was established. The results showed that:Fitting curves of Guangdong’s waste water emissions and GDP reflected significant EKC relation. A decoupling effect occurred between industrial wastewater emissions and GDP. Industrial production’s pressure on resources and the environment gradually reduced. Sewage emissions growth was relatively fast, leading to serious eutrophication of coastal waters. The frequency of occurrence of red-tide gradually increased, which had a direct threat to the normal functioning of the coastal water body. The annual change of coastal catch rate in Guangdong suggested that the biodiversity of the coastal waters was to a certain extent restored, but the situation was still not optimistic. The EKC theory shows that economic growth will ultimately improve the quality of the environment, but that has prerequisite. The province must develop environmental protection policy and establish coastal ecological conservation areas, so as to achieve regional economic development in harmony with the environment.