CAJ | 학술논문

基于中国35个大中型城市1997-2011年的面板数据，对空港与城市经济之间的长期因果关系进行检验。研究结果发现：我国大中型城市的空港客流增长是城市长期经济增长的单向格兰杰原因；直辖市和副省级城市的航空客流和物流均是城市长期经济增长的单向格兰杰原因，空港是城市发展的内生因素，会促进城市经济的长期增长；其他省会城市仅存在城市经济增长至空港客流长期增长的单向格兰杰因果关系，空港只对城市经济具有短期效应。空港的规模大小、是否为枢纽将决定是用新古典经济增长理论还是内生增长理论去理解其对城市经济增长的意义，空港条件的差异将加剧城市经济的分异，航空网络的发展也将对城市体系产生重要影响。而城市经济增长对航空运输的长期增长效应并不普遍，表明我国城市的经济产业结构对空港的依赖性还较弱。综合考虑城市发展条件，合理规划空港并布局相关产业，或许航空城将是未来都市经济增长的新引擎。
기우중국35개대중형성시1997-2011년적면판수거，대공항여성시경제지간적장기인과관계진행검험。연구결과발현：아국대중형성시적공항객류증장시성시장기경제증장적단향격란걸원인；직할시화부성급성시적항공객류화물류균시성시장기경제증장적단향격란걸원인，공항시성시발전적내생인소，회촉진성시경제적장기증장；기타성회성시부존재성시경제증장지공항객류장기증장적단향격란걸인과관계，공항지대성시경제구유단기효응。공항적규모대소、시부위추뉴장결정시용신고전경제증장이론환시내생증장이론거리해기대성시경제증장적의의，공항조건적차이장가극성시경제적분이，항공망락적발전야장대성시체계산생중요영향。이성시경제증장대항공운수적장기증장효응병불보편，표명아국성시적경제산업결구대공항적의뢰성환교약。종합고필성시발전조건，합리규화공항병포국상관산업，혹허항공성장시미래도시경제증장적신인경。
Based on the urban panel data of 35 metropolitan cities from 1997 to 2011, the paper provides an empirical analysis on the long-term causal relationship between airport and city economic growth. The result shows that there is a unilateral Granger causal-effect from the growth of air passenger to the urban economic growth in the 35 major cities. There is a unilateral Granger causal-effect from the growth of air passenger and air cargo to the urban economic growth in the municipalities and sub-provincial cities. Hub airport is the endogenous factor to city economic growth, promoting the long-term growth. But there is a unilateral Granger causal-effect from the urban economic growth to the growth of air passenger in other capital cities, the small airports just have short-term effect. The discrepancy of airports will make us use the new-classic growth theory or endogenous growth theory to comprehend the meaning of urban economic growth, and will intensify the city economic differentiation. The development of aviation network will have important influence on urban system. The long-term causality from city economic growth to air transport is not common, possibly indicates that the industrial structure of Chinese metropolitan cities don’t have strong dependence on airfreight transport. Considering the conditions of city development, the airport city will be the new engine of the urban economic growth in the future, if the governments could plan airports and layout related industries reasonably.