CAJ | 학술논문

利用元胞自动机原理，建立了同时具有异质性和移动性的SEIR传染病传播模型。考虑到个体自身的传染能力、对传染病的抵抗能力等不同因素的影响，通过感染概率来体现个体的异质性；限制种群移动的范围，添加种群移动的比例来实现种群的移动，扩展了随机行走元胞自动机。结合甲型H1N1流感的传播特征，模拟了其传播过程。模拟结果与官网公布的实际数据相吻合，验证了模型的合理性和有效性。利用该模型还分别考察了种群移动比例和种群移动最大距离对传染病传播的影响，相比较种群移动比例对传染病传播的影响更加显著，加速了传染病的传播。
이용원포자동궤원리，건립료동시구유이질성화이동성적SEIR전염병전파모형。고필도개체자신적전염능력、대전염병적저항능력등불동인소적영향，통과감염개솔래체현개체적이질성；한제충군이동적범위，첨가충군이동적비례래실현충군적이동，확전료수궤행주원포자동궤。결합갑형H1N1류감적전파특정，모의료기전파과정。모의결과여관망공포적실제수거상문합，험증료모형적합이성화유효성。이용해모형환분별고찰료충군이동비례화충군이동최대거리대전염병전파적영향，상비교충군이동비례대전염병전파적영향경가현저，가속료전염병적전파。
An epidemic SEIR model with inhomogeneity and mobility is built based on the theory of cellular automata . The inhomogeneity in individuals′ behaviors is considered by assigning varying levels of infectivity and susceptibility .The distance of population movement will be limited and the percentage of population movement has been realized ,so random walk cellular automata is extended . The proposed model can be served as a basis to simulate real epidemics based on real data .According to the real data about influenza A (H1N1) ,the numerical simulation is realized .The results of simulation are very close to the practical data announced by the official .It is show n that the model is rational and valid . Further study is conducted on the effect of population movement on epidemic propagation .Compared with the max-distance of population movement ,the effect of the percentage of population movement is more sensitive ,and it can accelerate the spreading of the epidemic disease .