CAJ | 학술논문

本文实现了全球多区域CGE模拟系统，并用于人民币升值影响模拟分析。模拟发现，在升值冲击下，中国的出口量大幅下降，但实际GDP不会出现明显下滑。人民币升值对中国经济产生两个结构效应：（1）产业结构方面，制造业产出下降，而农业与服务业产出则有所上升；（2） GDP结构方面，居民消费比重上升，净出口比重下降。作者认为，升值不会对中国经济整体产生实质性的负面影响，相反，对于调整产业结构、改变外向型经济增长方式具有一定意义，但应恰当选择升值时机，并警惕升值在短期内产生的结构性失业问题。
본문실현료전구다구역CGE모의계통，병용우인민폐승치영향모의분석。모의발현，재승치충격하，중국적출구량대폭하강，단실제GDP불회출현명현하활。인민폐승치대중국경제산생량개결구효응：（1）산업결구방면，제조업산출하강，이농업여복무업산출칙유소상승；（2） GDP결구방면，거민소비비중상승，정출구비중하강。작자인위，승치불회대중국경제정체산생실질성적부면영향，상반，대우조정산업결구、개변외향형경제증장방식구유일정의의，단응흡당선택승치시궤，병경척승치재단기내산생적결구성실업문제。
This paper investigates the impact of RMB appreciation on global economics by utilizing CGE simula-tion system of the global region. Under the shock from RMB appreciation, though the export of China has been re-duced largely, the real GDP of China will not drop drastically. The appreciation of RMB produces two structural ef-fects on China’s economy. Firstly, in terms of industrial structure,the output of China’s manufacturing industry is re-duced,while the output of the agriculture and service industries will increase. Secondly, in terms of GDP structure, the ratio of residents’ consumption rises, while the net export ratio declines. This paper believes that RMB apprecia-tion has no substantially negative influence on the economy of China. Instead,it can play a positive role on the industri-al adjustment and help change the export-oriented growth pattern. China should choose appropriate opportunities to im-plement the appreciation policy and pay more attention to the potential structural unemployment caused by RMB appre-ciation in the short term.