CAJ | 학술논문

房地产价格的波动关系国民经济的健康发展和人民生活的和谐稳定，判断房价有无泡沫、泡沫程度大小是实施房地产调控政策的一个重要基础。在综合考虑经济基本面和心理预期因素影响的基础上，对1999～2011年间35个大中城市的房价建立动态面板数据模型，借助迭代回归方法计算均衡价格，将由经济基本面决定的均衡价格与实际价格进行比较，从而测算出各个城市房价泡沫度。结论表明近几年我国大多数城市房价泡沫有加大趋势，但不同城市之间房价泡沫程度差异较大。因此，房地产市场调控应考虑城市之间的差异性，采取差异化的调控政策。
방지산개격적파동관계국민경제적건강발전화인민생활적화해은정，판단방개유무포말、포말정도대소시실시방지산조공정책적일개중요기출。재종합고필경제기본면화심리예기인소영향적기출상，대1999～2011년간35개대중성시적방개건립동태면판수거모형，차조질대회귀방법계산균형개격，장유경제기본면결정적균형개격여실제개격진행비교，종이측산출각개성시방개포말도。결론표명근궤년아국대다수성시방개포말유가대추세，단불동성시지간방개포말정도차이교대。인차，방지산시장조공응고필성시지간적차이성，채취차이화적조공정책。
There are important relationships between the real estate price fluctuation and the healthy develop-ment of national economy and people ’ s life of harmony and stability.Identifying the degree of real estate price bub-ble is an important basic for the real estate regulation policy.In consideration of the economic fundamentals and psychological factors , we found a dynamic panel data model for 35 large and medium -sized cities in 1999~2011 based on the method of iterative regression.With the help of this model , we can get the equilibrium price for every city, then we measure each city ’ s housing price bubbles through comparing the real price and the equilibrium price.Results indicate that the bubble has an increasing trend in recent years , but there are obvious differences be-tween cities.So real estate market regulation policy should take account of the differences between cities.