CAJ | 학술논문

以1999-2010年四川省新能源消费量、传统能源消费量和实际GDP的统计数据为依据，运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和多元线性回归模型，对四川省新能源消费量、传统矿物能源消费量和经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果表明，三者之间具有长期相对稳定的关系，新能源消费量对经济增长存在较为显著的单向Granger因果关系，但是在短期内四川省GDP的增长对新能源的消费量并没有显著的因果关系；同时，新能源和传统化石能源都能促进经济的增长，但是新能源对经济增长的贡献比传统化石能源要高。最后，基于上述实证研究，提出关于促进四川省新能源发展的几点政策建议。
이1999-2010년사천성신능원소비량、전통능원소비량화실제GDP적통계수거위의거，운용협정검험、격란걸인과관계검험화다원선성회귀모형，대사천성신능원소비량、전통광물능원소비량화경제증장적관계진행실증분석。결과표명，삼자지간구유장기상대은정적관계，신능원소비량대경제증장존재교위현저적단향Granger인과관계，단시재단기내사천성GDP적증장대신능원적소비량병몰유현저적인과관계；동시，신능원화전통화석능원도능촉진경제적증장，단시신능원대경제증장적공헌비전통화석능원요고。최후，기우상술실증연구，제출관우촉진사천성신능원발전적궤점정책건의。
Based on relevant data from Sichuan province during the period of 1999-2010 , this paper carries out empirical analysis on the relationship between new energy consumption , traditional mineral fuels consumption and economic growth in Sichuan province with a method of Co -integration Test Granger Test and Linear Regression Models .The result of the test shows that new energy consumption obviously has a one -way Granger causation with economic growth; GDP's growth has no remarkable cause-and-effect relationship with new energy consumption in a short term;new energy and conventional energy could both boost the growth of economy , however, the former serves more effectively than the latter .At last, this pa-per proposes some points of policy suggestions about gearing up the new energy development in Sichuan province .