CAJ | 학술논문

根据山东省莱芜市2007～2011年冬季（12月至翌年2月）日光温室内、外气象观测资料，分析了晴天、多云天、阴天不同天气条件下日光温室内地温变化特征及其与温室内外气象要素的关系；以温室内、外气象要素为启动因子，构建了未来3 d 10 cm逐时地温预报模型。结果表明：温室内地温与气温关系密切，其中当日及前期室外最高气温、最低气温对10 cm逐时地温影响较大；未来3 d 10 cm逐时地温预报模型中，晴天、阴天、多云天预报模型RMSE（均方根误差）分别为0.7、0.6、0.8℃，阴天预报模型精度较晴天、多云天高；00：00～07：00、08：00～17：00、18：00～23：003个时段预报模型RMSE分别为0.6、0.7、0.6℃，00：00～07：00、18：00～23：00时段预报模型精度较08：00～17：00时段高；未来1、2、3 d预报模型RMSE为0.5、0.6、0.8℃，预报精度随预报时效延长逐渐降低。
근거산동성래무시2007～2011년동계（12월지익년2월）일광온실내、외기상관측자료，분석료청천、다운천、음천불동천기조건하일광온실내지온변화특정급기여온실내외기상요소적관계；이온실내、외기상요소위계동인자，구건료미래3 d 10 cm축시지온예보모형。결과표명：온실내지온여기온관계밀절，기중당일급전기실외최고기온、최저기온대10 cm축시지온영향교대；미래3 d 10 cm축시지온예보모형중，청천、음천、다운천예보모형RMSE（균방근오차）분별위0.7、0.6、0.8℃，음천예보모형정도교청천、다운천고；00：00～07：00、08：00～17：00、18：00～23：003개시단예보모형RMSE분별위0.6、0.7、0.6℃，00：00～07：00、18：00～23：00시단예보모형정도교08：00～17：00시단고；미래1、2、3 d예보모형RMSE위0.5、0.6、0.8℃，예보정도수예보시효연장축점강저。
According to the meteorological data observed inside and outside the solar greenhouse (December to next February)from 2007 to 2011,this paper analyzes the geothermal temperature changing characteristic inside and outside the solar greenhouse,and its relationship with meteorological elements inside and outside the solar greenhouse under different weather conditions:sunny,overcast and cloudy days.Taking the metrological factors inside and outside of solar greenhouse as promoter,we constructed a hourly geothermal temperature of 10 cm forecast model for 3 days in the future.The results indicated that the geothermal temperature inside the solar greenhouse was closely related to the temperature. The geothermal temperature of 10 cm inside the greenhouse was highly correlated with the lowest and highest temperatures outside the solar greenhouse on that day and the day before;and in the 3 days hourly geothermal temperature of 10 cm forecast model,the forecast model RMSE for sunny,overcast and cloudy days were 0.7,0.6,0.8 ℃,respectively. The forecast model accuracy for overcast day is higher than that for sunny and cloudy days.The forecast model RMSE of 00:00-07:00,08:00-17:00 and 18:00-23:00 were 0.6,0.7,0.6 ℃,respectively.And the forecast model accuracy of 00:00-07:00,18:00-23:00 were higher than that of 08:00-17:00.The forecast model RMSE for the next day,the next 2 days and the next 3 days were 0.5,0.6,0.8℃,and the forecast accuracy was gradually decreased with the prediction time extension.