CAJ | 학술논문

针对椭圆轨道误差传播问题，提出了一种基于T-H方程状态转移矩阵的初始误差传播特性分析方法。首先将空间目标真实状态和预报状态对应于一“实”一“虚”两个近距离空间目标，把预报误差看作“虚”目标相对“实”目标的相对运动，利用空间目标近距离相对运动理论来研究预报误差的特性。然后引入T-H方程状态转移矩阵分析初始误差的传播，得到了各个方向误差传播的规律。最后进行仿真验证，分别使用蒙特卡洛法和文中方法计算了典型椭圆轨道的误差传播，并与STK高精度轨道预报模型（HPOP）进行对比，得到结果的相对误差大都在2％以内，并与理论分析结果的趋势一致，证实了该方法的正确性。
침대타원궤도오차전파문제，제출료일충기우T-H방정상태전이구진적초시오차전파특성분석방법。수선장공간목표진실상태화예보상태대응우일“실”일“허”량개근거리공간목표，파예보오차간작“허”목표상대“실”목표적상대운동，이용공간목표근거리상대운동이론래연구예보오차적특성。연후인입T-H방정상태전이구진분석초시오차적전파，득도료각개방향오차전파적규률。최후진행방진험증，분별사용몽특잡락법화문중방법계산료전형타원궤도적오차전파，병여STK고정도궤도예보모형（HPOP）진행대비，득도결과적상대오차대도재2％이내，병여이론분석결과적추세일치，증실료해방법적정학성。
To study the initial error propagation of elliptical orbit , a new method was developed based on the state transition matrix of T-H equation . Firstly , the true state and predict state of one space object can be considered as two objects :a real one and a virtual one . Considering predict error as relative motion between these two objects , the relative motion theory was used to study the characteristic of error propagation . Secondly , the state transition matrix of T-H equation was introduced to analyze the propagation of initial error , with which the trend of error propagation in each direction was obtained . Finally ,a simulation case was designed to validate the correctness of the new method ,and the Monte-Carlo method and the new method were used to calculate error propagation of typical elliptical orbit . The results were compared with the HPOP′s results . Most of the relative error is less than 2% , and is consistent with the trend of the theoretical analysis results .