生态环境学报
生態環境學報
생태배경학보
ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT
2013年
7期
1199-1203
,共5页
偏离-份额%工业废水%耦合%污染排放%经济增长
偏離-份額%工業廢水%耦閤%汙染排放%經濟增長
편리-빈액%공업폐수%우합%오염배방%경제증장
shift-share model%industrial wastewater%coupling%pollutant discharge%economic growth
为分析改革开放以来工业废水排放与工业产值在空间变化上的耦合过程，将全国分为4个地区，1981-2011年分为4个阶段，并引入偏离-份额分析法进行定量计算。结果表明，1）31年来，中国工业废水排放量呈现“上升-下降-上升-下降”的波动式变化趋势。其中，1987年排放量最高，达260.3×108 t；1997年排放量最低，为184.5×108 t。2）分省区看，工业废水排放量相对集中。31年来，排放量超过400×108 t的5个省份（江苏、四川、广东、湖南、浙江）占全国总量的37.2%。3）西部地区工业废水排放强度年均降低11.8%，降幅高于东部、东北、中部的9.9%、10.2%、11.5%。4）相比于工业产值的增长，4大地区间工业废水增长速度的差异更大，各地间的非均衡增长更为明显。同时在4大地区内部，工业废水排放量的差异也在变大。5）31年来，地区间工业经济经历了“低水平均衡-非均衡-均衡”的过程，而工业废水排放量则基本向非均衡状态发展。6）技术因素（工业废水排放强度）对废水排放量增量的抑制作用将逐渐减弱，工业废水增长量受工业产值增长的影响将越来越明显。
為分析改革開放以來工業廢水排放與工業產值在空間變化上的耦閤過程，將全國分為4箇地區，1981-2011年分為4箇階段，併引入偏離-份額分析法進行定量計算。結果錶明，1）31年來，中國工業廢水排放量呈現“上升-下降-上升-下降”的波動式變化趨勢。其中，1987年排放量最高，達260.3×108 t；1997年排放量最低，為184.5×108 t。2）分省區看，工業廢水排放量相對集中。31年來，排放量超過400×108 t的5箇省份（江囌、四川、廣東、湖南、浙江）佔全國總量的37.2%。3）西部地區工業廢水排放彊度年均降低11.8%，降幅高于東部、東北、中部的9.9%、10.2%、11.5%。4）相比于工業產值的增長，4大地區間工業廢水增長速度的差異更大，各地間的非均衡增長更為明顯。同時在4大地區內部，工業廢水排放量的差異也在變大。5）31年來，地區間工業經濟經歷瞭“低水平均衡-非均衡-均衡”的過程，而工業廢水排放量則基本嚮非均衡狀態髮展。6）技術因素（工業廢水排放彊度）對廢水排放量增量的抑製作用將逐漸減弱，工業廢水增長量受工業產值增長的影響將越來越明顯。
위분석개혁개방이래공업폐수배방여공업산치재공간변화상적우합과정，장전국분위4개지구，1981-2011년분위4개계단，병인입편리-빈액분석법진행정량계산。결과표명，1）31년래，중국공업폐수배방량정현“상승-하강-상승-하강”적파동식변화추세。기중，1987년배방량최고，체260.3×108 t；1997년배방량최저，위184.5×108 t。2）분성구간，공업폐수배방량상대집중。31년래，배방량초과400×108 t적5개성빈（강소、사천、엄동、호남、절강）점전국총량적37.2%。3）서부지구공업폐수배방강도년균강저11.8%，강폭고우동부、동북、중부적9.9%、10.2%、11.5%。4）상비우공업산치적증장，4대지구간공업폐수증장속도적차이경대，각지간적비균형증장경위명현。동시재4대지구내부，공업폐수배방량적차이야재변대。5）31년래，지구간공업경제경력료“저수평균형-비균형-균형”적과정，이공업폐수배방량칙기본향비균형상태발전。6）기술인소（공업폐수배방강도）대폐수배방량증량적억제작용장축점감약，공업폐수증장량수공업산치증장적영향장월래월명현。
In order to analysis the spatial coupling variation of industrial wastewater discharge and industrial output value since the Reform and Opening, we divided the whole country into four regions and the long time period (from 1981 to 2011) into four periods. The shift-share model was introduced into quantitative calculation. The results showed that: 1)During the 31 years (from 1981 to 2011), the amount of industrial wastewater discharged in China showed an ‘increasing-declining-increasing-declining’ time trend with a fluctuations. The maximum amount was 260.3×108 t in 1987, and the minimum amount was 184.5×108 t in 1997. 2)Amount of industrial wastewater discharged was relatively concentrated on province level. From 1981 to 2011, the total amount of Jiangsu, Sichuan, Guangdong, Hunan and Zhejiang was more than 400×108 t;and the combined amount of these provinces accounted for 37.2%of the national total. 3)The annual average reduction on amount of industrial wastewater discharged was 11.8%in the western areas, 9.9% in the east areas, 10.2% in the northeast areas, and 11.5% in the middle areas. The annual average reduction on amount of industrial wastewater discharged in western areas was higher than that in other areas. 4)Compared to the growth of industrial output value, difference on the growth rate of industrial wastewater was wider and unbalanced growth was more obvious among the four areas. Meanwhile, the difference on amount of industrial wastewater discharged among the four areas was becoming wider. 5)During the 31 years, regional industrial economy experienced a ‘low-level equilibrium’– ‘non-balanced’– ‘balanced’ process, whereas amount of industrial wastewater discharged basically developed to the non-balanced status. 6)Inhibitory effect of technical factor (intensity of industrial wastewater discharged) on the increments of wastewater discharged amount was gradually weak, whereas the effect of industrial output value growth on the increments of industrial wastewater was more and more obvious.
