CAJ | 학술논문

极端降水事件是导致长江流域洪涝灾害的主要原因之一，分析其变化趋势可为该地区的生态建设提供重要的参考信息。利用1960-2011年长江中下游地区（湖北、湖南、江苏、安徽、江西、浙江）84个气象站逐日降水资料，基于线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall法、小波分析法及EOF方法，分析了该地区近50年降水时空分布特征。结果表明：长江中下游地区近50年来降水呈上升趋势，但不显著；除降水强度外，各降水指数均呈上升趋势，其中大雨天数和日最大降水量上升趋势较显著；在年代际尺度上，各指数呈10年/20年周期震荡，在年际尺度上，各降水指数变化周期差异较大；降水强度突变现象发生于2000年，其他指数突变主要出现在1970年；EOF前三种模态，能够较好的表达大雨天数空间分布特征，其中一致性异常是其主要空间模态。
겁단강수사건시도치장강류역홍로재해적주요원인지일，분석기변화추세가위해지구적생태건설제공중요적삼고신식。이용1960-2011년장강중하유지구（호북、호남、강소、안휘、강서、절강）84개기상참축일강수자료，기우선성경향고계법、Mann-Kendall법、소파분석법급EOF방법，분석료해지구근50년강수시공분포특정。결과표명：장강중하유지구근50년래강수정상승추세，단불현저；제강수강도외，각강수지수균정상승추세，기중대우천수화일최대강수량상승추세교현저；재년대제척도상，각지수정10년/20년주기진탕，재년제척도상，각강수지수변화주기차이교대；강수강도돌변현상발생우2000년，기타지수돌변주요출현재1970년；EOF전삼충모태，능구교호적표체대우천수공간분포특정，기중일치성이상시기주요공간모태。
Extreme climate events often cause damages to society and ecosystems, and the impacts of extreme precipitation events are of the most critical reasons causing devastating floods of the Yangtze Basin. Therefore, variations trends in extreme precipitation events need to be reasonably assessed, which can provide meaningful information on regional ecological conservation. Based on the daily precipitation data derived from 84 gauge stations over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River from 1960 to 2011, The spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation are investigated according to tendency analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method. The results show that, in past 50 years, all of precipitation indices present increasing tendency except precipitation intensity, and both of the number of heavy precipitation days and maximum 1-day precipitation increase obviously; on the inter-decadal timescale, it significantly demonstrates a 10-year/20-year oscillation period; the mutations mainly appear in 1970 except that for precipitation intensity happened in 2000; the first, second and third modal of EOF can perfectly present the spatial distribution characteristics of the number of heavy precipitation days;the consistent anomaly distribution is the main spatial model over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.