CAJ | 학술논문

模具制造过程的诸多因素导致其项目制造成本难以准确估计，尤其是模具返修成本的不确定性。为此，对带随机返修的模具项目制造成本监视方法进行了研究。首先，分析了造成模具项目成本不确定的诸多因素，并建立了基于返修事件的Markov链项目成本演化模型，考虑了返修成本的不确定性；其次，基于项目实际情况，提出了修正矩阵的方法对返修概率进行修正；最后，开发出了一个用于监视轮胎模具项目成本的系统，并结合实例验证了该模型的有效性和实用性。
모구제조과정적제다인소도치기항목제조성본난이준학고계，우기시모구반수성본적불학정성。위차，대대수궤반수적모구항목제조성본감시방법진행료연구。수선，분석료조성모구항목성본불학정적제다인소，병건립료기우반수사건적Markov련항목성본연화모형，고필료반수성본적불학정성；기차，기우항목실제정황，제출료수정구진적방법대반수개솔진행수정；최후，개발출료일개용우감시륜태모구항목성본적계통，병결합실례험증료해모형적유효성화실용성。
The manufacturing cost is difficult to be estimated accurately due to various factors in mould manufacturing process,especially the uncertainty in repair stage. Therefore,the monitoring method of the manufacturing cost of the mould project with stochastic repair was researched. Firstly, the factors which cause the project manufacturing cost uncertain were analyzed. To consider the uncertainty of the repair cost, a project cost evolutionary model which is based on the repair event Markov chain was set up. Secondly, based on the manufacturing truth the modify matrix was proposed. Finally,a system was developed to monitor the tire mould project cost. The validity and the practicality of the model was confirmed in this case.