CAJ | 학술논문

城市生态安全是一个国家或区域生态安全的基础和核心．以沿江沿海、快速发展中的南通为例，基于PSR概念模型构建其城市生态安全评价指标体系，运用熵权法对各指标客观赋权，在对升半梯隶属函数完善细化和确定城市生态安全评价标准值之后，采用Fuzzy方法对1999～2008年10a间的城市生态安全状况进行综合评价，并运用逐步回归分析法构建预测模型，计算2009年南通城市生态安全级别预测值，与Fuzzy计算的结果进行对比检验．结果表明：1999年等级值为2.22处于不安全状态，到2008年达到了3.07已处于较安全状态，南通城市生态安全状况在逐年趋好；经模型检验，预测模型具有显著的统计意义，对未来城市生态环境质量改善和生态安全规划管理提供了依据．
성시생태안전시일개국가혹구역생태안전적기출화핵심．이연강연해、쾌속발전중적남통위례，기우PSR개념모형구건기성시생태안전평개지표체계，운용적권법대각지표객관부권，재대승반제대속함수완선세화화학정성시생태안전평개표준치지후，채용Fuzzy방법대1999～2008년10a간적성시생태안전상황진행종합평개，병운용축보회귀분석법구건예측모형，계산2009년남통성시생태안전급별예측치，여Fuzzy계산적결과진행대비검험．결과표명：1999년등급치위2.22처우불안전상태，도2008년체도료3.07이처우교안전상태，남통성시생태안전상황재축년추호；경모형검험，예측모형구유현저적통계의의，대미래성시생태배경질량개선화생태안전규화관리제공료의거．
Based on the PSR conceptual model ,we constructed the ecological security evaluation index system of Nantong, a city developing rapidly which is riparian and coastal .The entropy-right method was selected for the cal-culation objectively of the index weights .After the perfection and detailing of rise half-ladder subordinate function and the confirmation of classification standard of urban eco-security evaluation , the fuzzy synthetic evaluation meth-od was adopted in calculating , analyzing and evaluating the grades of urban eco-security ecology from 1999 to 2008.The prediction model was established by adopting stepwise regression analysis , and the predicted value of 2009 was compared to the calculation results by the Fuzzy .The results indicate that the aggregated index is 2.22 in 1999,which means the ecological security level of Nantong is insecure ,but the index value of 2008 is 3.07 which reaches the security standard .Urban eco-security situation of Nantong becomes better and better , the evaluation prediction model has remarkable statistical significance .This study elaborates the development and the present eco-logical security state of Nantong , provides useful information for the planning and management of ecological security and improvement of ecological environment of Nantong .