CAJ | 학술논문

以江顺大桥的斜拉桥方案初步设计阶段安全风险评估为工程背景，采用层次分析（AHP）-模糊聚类（Fuzzy Clustering）-德尔菲（Delphi method）综合风险评估法（AFD法），进行建设条件风险评估、结构方案风险评估、施工技术风险评估和工程运营管理4个准则层风险评估的研究。以工程实际情况及专家经验为基础确定风险源，通过层次分析确定风险准则层权重、子层权重和风险源权重。采用模糊聚类分析的方法对每个风险源的专家打分给出综合总评结果以确保专家打分结果的有效性。对专家打分数据进行分析后，结合层次分析权重结果，获得单项风险源风险水平、准则层风险水平和该项目方案整体风险水平。结果表明，该方案综合风险等级为Ⅱ级，属中度风险。本文提出的AFD法用于工程设计安全风险评估是可行的。
이강순대교적사랍교방안초보설계계단안전풍험평고위공정배경，채용층차분석（AHP）-모호취류（Fuzzy Clustering）-덕이비（Delphi method）종합풍험평고법（AFD법），진행건설조건풍험평고、결구방안풍험평고、시공기술풍험평고화공정운영관리4개준칙층풍험평고적연구。이공정실제정황급전가경험위기출학정풍험원，통과층차분석학정풍험준칙층권중、자층권중화풍험원권중。채용모호취류분석적방법대매개풍험원적전가타분급출종합총평결과이학보전가타분결과적유효성。대전가타분수거진행분석후，결합층차분석권중결과，획득단항풍험원풍험수평、준칙층풍험수평화해항목방안정체풍험수평。결과표명，해방안종합풍험등급위Ⅱ급，속중도풍험。본문제출적AFD법용우공정설계안전풍험평고시가행적。
As part of design stage,the combined AHP-Fuzzy Clustering-Delphi method(AFD method)is put forward to analyze and assess the safety risk of Jiangshun cable-stayed bridge. Risk assessment of Jiangshun ca-ble-stayed bridge scheme is carried out in the following four standard layers construction condition risk,struc-ture scheme risk,technology risk and management risk. Based on the engineering background and experience of experts,the risk factors are defined. In order to ensure the accuracy of experts’assessment,fuzzy clustering method is used to analyze the results from experts. Then,combined with the result of risk weight from AHP,the risk rank of risk factors,risk layers and the whole bridge scheme are worked out. The result shows that the risk rank of cable-stayed bridge is II,which is of medium risk. The paper concludes that the AFD method is feasible.