管理科学
管理科學
관이과학
MANAGEMENT SCIENCES IN CHINA
2013年
4期
113-120
,共8页
广义 Bass 模型%创新%模仿%政策扰动%风能技术扩散
廣義 Bass 模型%創新%模倣%政策擾動%風能技術擴散
엄의 Bass 모형%창신%모방%정책우동%풍능기술확산
Generalized Bass model%innovation%imitation%policy intervention%wind technology diffusion
基于广义 Bass 模型，对比中国与世界其他风能先进国家在技术创新水平和模仿水平上的差异，考察外生政策冲击对中国风能技术扩散的影响。利用常规 Bass 模型、广义 Bass模型、Logistic 模型和 Gompertz 模型等多个预测模型对中国未来风能技术的扩散趋势进行短期预测，并对其预测精度和结果差异进行对比和分析。研究结果表明，中国风能技术市场的创新水平显著低于其他风能技术较为先进的欧美国家，甚至低于同为发展中国家的印度，模仿水平在所有考察国家中最高；中国风能技术扩散过程受指数冲击和矩形冲击的影响，但两种外部冲击的影响程度均较弱；中国风能技术急速增长的阶段已经过去，且于2010年达到增长的阶段性峰值点，未来的增速将显著放缓。针对上述结论给出促进中国风能长效发展的相关政策建议。
基于廣義 Bass 模型，對比中國與世界其他風能先進國傢在技術創新水平和模倣水平上的差異，攷察外生政策遲擊對中國風能技術擴散的影響。利用常規 Bass 模型、廣義 Bass模型、Logistic 模型和 Gompertz 模型等多箇預測模型對中國未來風能技術的擴散趨勢進行短期預測，併對其預測精度和結果差異進行對比和分析。研究結果錶明，中國風能技術市場的創新水平顯著低于其他風能技術較為先進的歐美國傢，甚至低于同為髮展中國傢的印度，模倣水平在所有攷察國傢中最高；中國風能技術擴散過程受指數遲擊和矩形遲擊的影響，但兩種外部遲擊的影響程度均較弱；中國風能技術急速增長的階段已經過去，且于2010年達到增長的階段性峰值點，未來的增速將顯著放緩。針對上述結論給齣促進中國風能長效髮展的相關政策建議。
기우엄의 Bass 모형，대비중국여세계기타풍능선진국가재기술창신수평화모방수평상적차이，고찰외생정책충격대중국풍능기술확산적영향。이용상규 Bass 모형、엄의 Bass모형、Logistic 모형화 Gompertz 모형등다개예측모형대중국미래풍능기술적확산추세진행단기예측，병대기예측정도화결과차이진행대비화분석。연구결과표명，중국풍능기술시장적창신수평현저저우기타풍능기술교위선진적구미국가，심지저우동위발전중국가적인도，모방수평재소유고찰국가중최고；중국풍능기술확산과정수지수충격화구형충격적영향，단량충외부충격적영향정도균교약；중국풍능기술급속증장적계단이경과거，차우2010년체도증장적계단성봉치점，미래적증속장현저방완。침대상술결론급출촉진중국풍능장효발전적상관정책건의。
This paper investigates the differences of innovation and imitation in wind technology between China and some other countries with leading wind technology based on Generalized Bass models , and explores the impacts of exogenous policy interven-tion on China′s wind technology diffusion .Short-term forecasts and prediction accuracy of the China′s wind technology in the fu-ture are provided and contrasted by performing Standard Bass model , general Bass model , Logistic model and Gompertz model . We find that:the level of wind technology innovation of China is significantly lower compared to the wind -advanced American and European countries and some developing countries such as India , while the imitation level is significantly higher than all sampled countries, both exponential shock and rectangular shock are found to have a limited and weak effect in the development of wind technology diffusion, rapid development process of wind is over with the peak occurred in 2010, and the wind adoption process is in its middle stage and the speed of technology diffusion is predicted to slow down in the future .Based on the conclusions , we fi-nally propose some policy suggestions for the sustainable development of wind technology .
