CAJ | 학술논문

数学模型中参数的不确定性直接影响到模拟结果的不确定性。以南水北调中线工程冬季输水为例，根据实测和设计资料，采用自主开发的大型长距离调水工程冬季输水冰情数值模拟平台，重点分析了冰情数学模型中单一参数（冰期冰盖糙率、大气与冰盖的热交换系数）的不确定性对冰期冰盖形成、发展、消融和水位、流量等要素的影响，并计算给出了一般规律。研究表明，初始冰盖糙率的不确定性对典型年冰期水力学要素的变化过程影响较大，主要反映在沿程各计算断面的水位、流量波动以及结冰期冰盖前缘动态发展模式上，而对冰情范围及与冰相关的变量变化过程无影响。大气与冰盖的热交换系数的不确定性直接影响到最大冰盖厚度的模拟结果，而对冰盖的发展规律影响不大。建议及早准备开展中线工程冰期输水原型观测工作，对上述不确定参数进行率定。
수학모형중삼수적불학정성직접영향도모의결과적불학정성。이남수북조중선공정동계수수위례，근거실측화설계자료，채용자주개발적대형장거리조수공정동계수수빙정수치모의평태，중점분석료빙정수학모형중단일삼수（빙기빙개조솔、대기여빙개적열교환계수）적불학정성대빙기빙개형성、발전、소융화수위、류량등요소적영향，병계산급출료일반규률。연구표명，초시빙개조솔적불학정성대전형년빙기수역학요소적변화과정영향교대，주요반영재연정각계산단면적수위、류량파동이급결빙기빙개전연동태발전모식상，이대빙정범위급여빙상관적변량변화과정무영향。대기여빙개적열교환계수적불학정성직접영향도최대빙개후도적모의결과，이대빙개적발전규률영향불대。건의급조준비개전중선공정빙기수수원형관측공작，대상술불학정삼수진행솔정。
Uncertainty of model parameters greatly affects the simulation results, and subsequently affects the management and decision making. Based on the numerical modeling system of water conveyance in ice period for large-scale and long distance water channel, the study focused on parameter-induced uncertainty in modeling ice processes which including ice cover forming and development for the middle route of the South-North Water Diversion Project. The uncertain parameters in this paper involve initial ice roughness and coefficient of heat exchange between air and ice. The results indicate that the uncertainty of initial ice roughness in the mathematical model mainly affects the water stage and discharge variation along the chan-nel and also the progression model of the leading edge, but has little effect on the length of ice covered reaches and variation of ice related variables. The uncertainty of coefficient of heat exchange between air and ice directly affects the maximum thickness of ice cover and has little effect on the rule of ice cover formation. Thus, the further field observations for this project should be performed to calibrate these uncer-tain parameters.