CAJ | 학술논문

结合基于置信区间的风电功率不确定性分析方法和模糊决策方法，提出了计及风电功率预测不确定性风险的含风电场的电力系统模糊机组组合模型。该模型采用模糊决策方法实现了机组发电成本和系统失负荷风险最小的目标，解决了已有模型中未给出置信区间选取依据的不足。此外，该模型采用贴合实际的风电预测不确定模型，保证了该模型的实用性。采用混合整数线性规划(mixed integer linear programming，MILP)方法对所提出的模型进行求解。通过对含风电场的IEEE RTS 26测试系统进行仿真，验证了该模型的有效性和优越性。
결합기우치신구간적풍전공솔불학정성분석방법화모호결책방법，제출료계급풍전공솔예측불학정성풍험적함풍전장적전력계통모호궤조조합모형。해모형채용모호결책방법실현료궤조발전성본화계통실부하풍험최소적목표，해결료이유모형중미급출치신구간선취의거적불족。차외，해모형채용첩합실제적풍전예측불학정모형，보증료해모형적실용성。채용혼합정수선성규화(mixed integer linear programming，MILP)방법대소제출적모형진행구해。통과대함풍전장적IEEE RTS 26측시계통진행방진，험증료해모형적유효성화우월성。
Combining confidence interval based uncertainty analysis on wind power with fuzzy decision-making, a fuzzy unit commitment model of power grid integrated with wind farms, in which the risk of wind power prediction uncertainty is taken into account, is proposed. In the proposed model the fuzzy decision-making is utilized to minimize both generation cost of units and loss-of-load risk of power grid to remedy the defect in existing models that the foundation for the selection of the confidence interval is not given. Besides, in the proposed model an uncertainty model for wind power prediction, which conforms to actual situation, is adopted to ensure the practicality of the proposed model. The proposed model is solved by mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The advantages and validity of the proposed model are verified by simulation results of IEEE RTS 26 test system connected with a wind farm.