CAJ | 학술논문

最大负载能力(maximum loadability，ML)是一个与系统设备的随机故障、网络拓扑、运行约束和运行策略等因素紧密相关的随机变量，实现最大负载能力和负荷需求的概率分布计算并开展二者互动分析可为大电网可靠性评估提供新的方法思路。文中在最大负载能力计算模型基础上提出了其修正模型，并将最大负载能力看成依赖于网络拓扑和设备偶发故障的随机变量，基于核密度估计构建了最大负载能力的概率分布计算模型，采用半不变量法进行最大负载能力与负荷间的概率分布卷积计算。该方法在负荷变动规律改变后，只需对最大负载能力和变化后的负荷随机变量进行卷积即可高效简便计算出新的电网可靠性指标，避免了重新进行可靠性评估的传统方法缺陷，大大减小了计算成本，具有较高实际工程应用价值。通过对RBTS和IEEE-RTS79系统的评估分析，验证了所提方法的快速性和有效性。
최대부재능력(maximum loadability，ML)시일개여계통설비적수궤고장、망락탁복、운행약속화운행책략등인소긴밀상관적수궤변량，실현최대부재능력화부하수구적개솔분포계산병개전이자호동분석가위대전망가고성평고제공신적방법사로。문중재최대부재능력계산모형기출상제출료기수정모형，병장최대부재능력간성의뢰우망락탁복화설비우발고장적수궤변량，기우핵밀도고계구건료최대부재능력적개솔분포계산모형，채용반불변량법진행최대부재능력여부하간적개솔분포권적계산。해방법재부하변동규률개변후，지수대최대부재능력화변화후적부하수궤변량진행권적즉가고효간편계산출신적전망가고성지표，피면료중신진행가고성평고적전통방법결함，대대감소료계산성본，구유교고실제공정응용개치。통과대RBTS화IEEE-RTS79계통적평고분석，험증료소제방법적쾌속성화유효성。
Maximum loadability (ML) is a random variable closely related to random equipment fault, network topology, operation constraints and operation strategy of power grid. it can provide new methodology and thinking for reliability evaluation of bulk power grid to implement the calculation of probability distribution of ML and grid load demand and to perform the interaction analysis between both. A modified model for the computation model of ML under specified system state is proposed and ML is regarded as a random variable dependent on network topology and random failure of power equipments, based on kernel density estimation a calculation model for probability distribution of ML is built and the convolution calculation of probability distribution between ML and load is carried out by cumulant method. Using the proposed method, when load variation regularity is changed, the new grid reliability index can be easily and efficiently achieved by convolution of ML and the changed random variable of load, thus the defect in traditional method that the reliability should be re-evaluated, and the calculation cost can be evidently decreased. The validity and rapidity of the proposed method are verified by simulation results of RBTS and IEEE-RTS79 reliability test system.