CAJ | 학술논문

负荷预测和发电预测是配电网规划中的关键环节，是变电站、网架规划重要计算依据。考虑主动配电网下新型负荷和分布式电源接入等因素，提出适用于主动配电网的概率型负荷预测和发电预测方法。首先全面分析了主动配电网的负荷分类，提出含友好负荷的整体负荷预测方法；其次构建主动配电网分布式电源装机容量及分布预测模型，考虑分布式电源出力的概率特性，进而提出分布式电源可信出力预测方法；最后以负荷预测和发电预测结果为基础，分析了新型负荷和分布式电源对主动配电网规划的影响。
부하예측화발전예측시배전망규화중적관건배절，시변전참、망가규화중요계산의거。고필주동배전망하신형부하화분포식전원접입등인소，제출괄용우주동배전망적개솔형부하예측화발전예측방법。수선전면분석료주동배전망적부하분류，제출함우호부하적정체부하예측방법；기차구건주동배전망분포식전원장궤용량급분포예측모형，고필분포식전원출력적개솔특성，진이제출분포식전원가신출력예측방법；최후이부하예측화발전예측결과위기출，분석료신형부하화분포식전원대주동배전망규화적영향。
ABSTRACT:Load and power forecasting is a key link in the distribution network planning as well as the computing basis of substation and grid planning. Considering the factors such as new-type loads and distributed generation resources, a probabilistic load and power forecasting method which is applicable to active distribution system was proposed. Firstly, on the basis of analyzing the load classification in active distribution network, a whole load forecasting method with friendly loads was proposed. Then the forecasting model of capacity and distribution of distributed generation was built, and the forecasting method of distributed generation credible power supply was proposed considering the probability of distributed power. Finally, the effect of new-type loads and distributed generation resources on active distribution network planning was analyzed, based on the load and power forecasting results.